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Or maybe the "analysts" are just not any good. For a specific example, look at how the "hobbyists" are beating the "professional" analysts at predicting Apple'

• achompas 16y ago
  If there's one company where hobbyists will beat professionals, it's Apple. Do you have any other examples?
  • brisance 16y ago
    There are many objective studies that show that individuals with their own specific trading/investing strategies can beat the street. But that's not really the point. The point is that AAPL is now only second to XOM in terms of market cap, and is not exactly a tiny blip on the radar. It is a stock that is being watched by literally millions. If these "professional" analysts have so many resources at their disposal, have the inside track on confidential information and are operating at such an uneven playing field as the parent postulates, then why would they consistently be beaten by the "hobbyists"?
    • achompas 16y ago
      Well, the fact that Apple is so large actually serves my point: there is a lot of information on Apple. The information asymmetry between hobbyists and analysts is nil for Apple. In fact, I'd argue the information asymmetry tilts in favor of individuals, considering that analysts publish their forecast. I wouldn't be shocked if these guys use "analyst expectations" as an input. Anyway, this is bad news for the analyst, because the one resource they don't have is time to focus on one company. Hobbyists, however, can focus on Apple all they want. So I'm not surprised that Apple fans nail their earnings forecast.