I left off one clarification: it tends to be a good predictor of recessions, but is not perfect. See the inversions for the last half of the 1960's at the St. L

I left off one clarification: it tends to be a good predictor of recessions, but is not perfect. See the inversions for the last half of the 1960's at the St. Louis Fed [0] as a counter-example. [0] - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nn5r https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nn5r