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This should be expected. Given rising FED rates over the last year+, as well as QT (quantitative Tightening, which undoes the QE in place for nearly a decade),
by MR4D 8y ago
This should be expected. Given rising FED rates over the last year+, as well as QT (quantitative Tightening, which undoes the QE in place for nearly a decade), these actions are - and this is key - reducing the money supply.
It is the reduction of money supply that causes deflation (and therefore lower rates). Technically, a yield curve inversion is an expectation of lower rates in the future, not necessarily lower growth.
This is actually extremely important, but widely misunderstood: You can have growth with deflation (and likewise, recession with inflation).
To make that point clear, a yield curve inversion is an expectation of interest rates, not necessarily an expectation of lower growth.
I expect this will cause all sorts of arguments, but the math is clear. I'll quote the Mises Institute [0] on this:
For instance, if the money supply increases by 5% and the quantity of goods increases by 10%, prices will fall by 5%.
[0] - https://mises.org/wire/central-banks-shouldnt-fight-deflation https://mises.org/wire/central-banks-shouldnt-fight-deflatio...
- MR4D 8y agoI left off one clarification: it tends to be a good predictor of recessions, but is not perfect. See the inversions for the last half of the 1960's at the St. Louis Fed [0] as a counter-example. [0] - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nn5r https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nn5r