4 ms·

I think the question needs to be asked: will this last for the next 25-30 years? I really hope so, but unlike being a doctor, it's a lot more uncertain than we'

I think the question needs to be asked: will this last for the next 25-30 years? I really hope so, but unlike being a doctor, it's a lot more uncertain than we'd like it to be.

peteradio 8y ago
Git while the gittins good.
hobofan 8y ago
Unless there are extreme breakthroughs in making software engineering approachable for currently not quite as qualified people, I don't see it changing. Breaking the social stigma of "nah that is extremely complicated, I can't learn that" would also be a big one. BIG SIMPLIFICATIONS AHEAD There are a lot of new software engineers popping up all the time, but very few ever reach a "senior" change, and a lot of them end up producing unmaintainable systems at companies, that sooner or later crumble. All at the same time, demand for good software engineers is growing and growing. There are also an interesting effect I'm starting to see more often (in Berlin), that due to combination of high salaries and moderate living costs, which make saving up money possible, qualified engineers are (partially) leaving the workforce quite early, either by dropping to part-time or retiring early. This then further lowers the available supply, making salaries even higher, and it even easier to save up money. More of a hunch than a big observable effect right now, but I'm very interested in seeing how that plays out over the coming years.
- mgkimsal 8y ago
  > There are a lot of new software engineers popping up all the time, but very few ever reach a "senior" change And yet many of them still get the 'senior' title and role, and still end up producing unmaintainable systems. I've had to clean up after quite a few.
  - hobofan 8y ago
    Yep. I think this might even be a symptom of the shortage of engineers. A "senior" title might often be the only way for the CTO (or equivalent) to justify what is perceived by the rest of the company as high salaries.
kelnos 8y ago
Does it need to? If you're making $250k a year (which honestly I think is lowballing; source: personal experience) and still have compensation growth, you shouldn't need to work another 25-30 years before retiring, as long as you don't feel the need to live a lavish lifestyle and are fine retiring in an area that doesn't have a high cost of living. If you're in your mid 30s now, and are already making $300k+ (very doable if you're skilled and work for an established company), I don't see why you couldn't retire by the time you're 50 with $2M+ in the bank. Even if you choose not to retire fully, even taking jobs that drastically cut your income to under $100k a year should net you a very comfortable retirement with a nice buffer. Just don't buy a house in San Francisco.
pbecotte 8y ago
So long as there are things that can be done with software that are more profitable then what it costs to hire an engineer there will continue to be upward pressure on engineer salaries. Anecdotally, there are SO MANY things that could be done better with software and the potential upside on those things is SO HIGH, I don't think we are anywhere near that breaking point.

I think the question needs to be asked: will this last for the next 25-30 years? I really hope so, but unlike being a doctor, it's a lot more uncertain than we'd like it to be.

peteradio 8y ago

Git while the gittins good.

hobofan 8y ago

Unless there are extreme breakthroughs in making software engineering approachable for currently not quite as qualified people, I don't see it changing. Breaking the social stigma of "nah that is extremely complicated, I can't learn that" would also be a big one. BIG SIMPLIFICATIONS AHEAD There are a lot of new software engineers popping up all the time, but very few ever reach a "senior" change, and a lot of them end up producing unmaintainable systems at companies, that sooner or later crumble. All at the same time, demand for good software engineers is growing and growing. There are also an interesting effect I'm starting to see more often (in Berlin), that due to combination of high salaries and moderate living costs, which make saving up money possible, qualified engineers are (partially) leaving the workforce quite early, either by dropping to part-time or retiring early. This then further lowers the available supply, making salaries even higher, and it even easier to save up money. More of a hunch than a big observable effect right now, but I'm very interested in seeing how that plays out over the coming years.

mgkimsal 8y ago
> There are a lot of new software engineers popping up all the time, but very few ever reach a "senior" change And yet many of them still get the 'senior' title and role, and still end up producing unmaintainable systems. I've had to clean up after quite a few.
- hobofan 8y ago
  Yep. I think this might even be a symptom of the shortage of engineers. A "senior" title might often be the only way for the CTO (or equivalent) to justify what is perceived by the rest of the company as high salaries.

kelnos 8y ago

Does it need to? If you're making $250k a year (which honestly I think is lowballing; source: personal experience) and still have compensation growth, you shouldn't need to work another 25-30 years before retiring, as long as you don't feel the need to live a lavish lifestyle and are fine retiring in an area that doesn't have a high cost of living. If you're in your mid 30s now, and are already making $300k+ (very doable if you're skilled and work for an established company), I don't see why you couldn't retire by the time you're 50 with $2M+ in the bank. Even if you choose not to retire fully, even taking jobs that drastically cut your income to under $100k a year should net you a very comfortable retirement with a nice buffer. Just don't buy a house in San Francisco.

pbecotte 8y ago

So long as there are things that can be done with software that are more profitable then what it costs to hire an engineer there will continue to be upward pressure on engineer salaries. Anecdotally, there are SO MANY things that could be done better with software and the potential upside on those things is SO HIGH, I don't think we are anywhere near that breaking point.