3 ms·
Has the yield curve ever gotten really inverted without a subsequent "bend over" recession following? ... IOW... is there a counter example where we can say wel
by drinane 8y ago
Has the yield curve ever gotten really inverted without a subsequent "bend over" recession following? ... IOW... is there a counter example where we can say well "maybe this time is a lot like this time?" ... otherwise sounds like the typical banker control clock in action. Good job monopoly man again! (I posses no knowledge of a better economic system)
- MR4D 8y agoYes. 1965. And then it bounced back and forth for the next 4-5 years before we finally had a recession in 1970. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nn5r https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nn5r
- throw0101a 8y ago> https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nn5r https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nn5r Note: this graph is for 10Y1Y, while the indicator generally talked about is 10Y3M.
- MR4D 8y agoGood point. I know that 10-2's are popular as well. I used this one because it had the longest history.