4 ms·

I certainly disagree with you that it is impossible to time the market. There are many forms of technical, statistical and fundamental analysis that help to tim

by JSig 16y ago

I certainly disagree with you that it is impossible to time the market. There are many forms of technical, statistical and fundamental analysis that help to time the market. A key element to trading is removing emotional bias. I am aware of many people that are successful traders. I will note that the market is much different today than it was in 2004. Today HFT accounts for 70% of volume. That is huge. I think having an investing strategy that does not assume an asset will always go up is important.

rdtsc 16y ago
> I certainly disagree with you that it is impossible to time the market. ... > I am aware of many people that are successful traders. You have to ask then if they own personal airplanes, yachts and private islands? If the answer is 'no', then you have to wonder why not? I think the problem is that individual successful traders are just traders who are randomly successful. You hear about them because they are the ones that get lucky and brag about it. Those who are unsuccessful will probably remain forever anonymous to the public and even their friends. The only ones that can "beat" the market are the ones that do it via technical means (minimum latency to the exchange, fastest computers, insider info, etc.) I think these are just the large investment banks.
- JSig 16y ago
  >> I am aware of many people that are successful traders. > You have to ask then if they own personal airplanes, yachts and private islands? If the answer is 'no', then you have to wonder why not? I am a software developer. Am I not successful because I dont own personal airplanes and a private island? I don't think these things define my success. Regardless, you have provided a straw man argument. The people I know who are successful traders all have different MOs. What defines there success is that they stay in the black. Hence, they are able to time the market. You don't need minimum latency to the exchange, fastest computers, insider info. As an example check out the performance of Fund My Mutual Fund. This is a virtual mutual fund that is soon to launch for real. http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2007/07/portfolio.html http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2007/07/portfolio.html
  - rdtsc 16y ago
    As a developer you are bounded by how much you can develop in a fixed amount of time, how much someone will pay you for it, and how many customers you have. If you could, would you not get payed more for your work? If you are working for someone, as I am, then you essentially have only one customer and they are paying you a fixed amount (+ some bonuses and raises). Or you could be like the author of minecraft, so you could be racking in hundreds of thousands a month. Now if you say you have found a way to beat the market through research, technical or fundamental analysis, your limit would be unbounded (theoretically). Your charts looks good and are very impressive, but it is only 2 years and you would not be showing them if they didn't do well. So for all I know you are just one of the random lucky ones that beat the market. Now if you had a way to consistenlty get 10% (and maybe you did!), in a decade or so you could be another Donald Trump. You need to convince others that you can do it and then soon you will start getting large investments. > What defines there success is that they stay in the black. Hence, they are able to time the market. If they can time the market, are they fully invested in it. Would they sell their house and get everyone they know to do the same so they can pour that into the market, then re-invest and eventually rule the world? Another way to ask the question is why haven't the big investment banks figured out the strategy, and as a result, diluted the strategy by now? Also what about the ones that don't stay in the black. Will they tell you, would you know how many have tried and failed? That is the true criteria. You would have to have a large group of traders commited to making money in the market. Then they all try for a fixed amount of time and in the end you see how they perform as a group. Now, essentially, you are just pickding the ones that performed in the black and using that as an argument that invididual trading can be a 100% profitable business.

by JSig 16y ago

rdtsc 16y ago

> I certainly disagree with you that it is impossible to time the market. ... > I am aware of many people that are successful traders. You have to ask then if they own personal airplanes, yachts and private islands? If the answer is 'no', then you have to wonder why not? I think the problem is that individual successful traders are just traders who are randomly successful. You hear about them because they are the ones that get lucky and brag about it. Those who are unsuccessful will probably remain forever anonymous to the public and even their friends. The only ones that can "beat" the market are the ones that do it via technical means (minimum latency to the exchange, fastest computers, insider info, etc.) I think these are just the large investment banks.

JSig 16y ago
>> I am aware of many people that are successful traders. > You have to ask then if they own personal airplanes, yachts and private islands? If the answer is 'no', then you have to wonder why not? I am a software developer. Am I not successful because I dont own personal airplanes and a private island? I don't think these things define my success. Regardless, you have provided a straw man argument. The people I know who are successful traders all have different MOs. What defines there success is that they stay in the black. Hence, they are able to time the market. You don't need minimum latency to the exchange, fastest computers, insider info. As an example check out the performance of Fund My Mutual Fund. This is a virtual mutual fund that is soon to launch for real. http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2007/07/portfolio.html http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2007/07/portfolio.html
- rdtsc 16y ago
  As a developer you are bounded by how much you can develop in a fixed amount of time, how much someone will pay you for it, and how many customers you have. If you could, would you not get payed more for your work? If you are working for someone, as I am, then you essentially have only one customer and they are paying you a fixed amount (+ some bonuses and raises). Or you could be like the author of minecraft, so you could be racking in hundreds of thousands a month. Now if you say you have found a way to beat the market through research, technical or fundamental analysis, your limit would be unbounded (theoretically). Your charts looks good and are very impressive, but it is only 2 years and you would not be showing them if they didn't do well. So for all I know you are just one of the random lucky ones that beat the market. Now if you had a way to consistenlty get 10% (and maybe you did!), in a decade or so you could be another Donald Trump. You need to convince others that you can do it and then soon you will start getting large investments. > What defines there success is that they stay in the black. Hence, they are able to time the market. If they can time the market, are they fully invested in it. Would they sell their house and get everyone they know to do the same so they can pour that into the market, then re-invest and eventually rule the world? Another way to ask the question is why haven't the big investment banks figured out the strategy, and as a result, diluted the strategy by now? Also what about the ones that don't stay in the black. Will they tell you, would you know how many have tried and failed? That is the true criteria. You would have to have a large group of traders commited to making money in the market. Then they all try for a fixed amount of time and in the end you see how they perform as a group. Now, essentially, you are just pickding the ones that performed in the black and using that as an argument that invididual trading can be a 100% profitable business.