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How often does it invert? Had it ever happened without a financial crisis to go with it?
by lallysingh 8y ago
How often does it invert? Had it ever happened without a financial crisis to go with it?
- 48snickers 8y agoAccording to the article, there has only been one false positive, back in 1965. Not sure how many inversions have occurred.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- Four_Star 8y agoThe specific part that just inverted has inverted before every recession since 1957 (9 times) and given one false alarm in 1965
- majewsky 8y agoHere's the last nearly 40 years worth of that curve, with recessions marked for convenience: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M (use the range selector below the graph to see everything)
- byset 8y agoYes, it often inverts before recessions, but most recessions do not accompany financial crises. The business cycle is normal; financial crises are (or should be) abnormal.