3 ms·
For comparison, the fatality rate for motor traffic in the US was 8.25 deaths per billion passenger-miles in 2016 ([0], [1], my calculation). There were 7.1 tri
by tfehring 8y ago
For comparison, the fatality rate for motor traffic in the US was 8.25 deaths per billion passenger-miles in 2016 ([0], [1], my calculation). There were 7.1 trillion passenger-km of global passenger air traffic flown in 2016 [2]. 100,000 deaths (your estimate) in 7.1 trillion passenger-km is equivalent to 22.6 deaths per billion passenger-miles (my calculation).
In other words, if all global passenger flights were on 737 max planes and the fatality rate continued, flying would be a little under 3x as deadly as driving on US roads on a per-passenger-mile basis, based on your estimate.
[0] https://www.bts.gov/content/us-passenger-miles https://www.bts.gov/content/us-passenger-miles
[1] (PDF) https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812603 https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/...
[2] https://www.icao.int/annual-report-2016/Pages/the-world-of-air-transport-in-2016.aspx https://www.icao.int/annual-report-2016/Pages/the-world-of-a...