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No, because it won't be a discrete shift from 100% humans to 100% robots - things will get automated in small parts. And even without that, the factories rely o

by deogeo 8y ago

No, because it won't be a discrete shift from 100% humans to 100% robots - things will get automated in small parts. And even without that, the factories rely on the nearby supply chains. Eventually, when you'll try to move something back to the US, you won't be able to because there just won't be any ecosystem there. E.g. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/technology/iphones-apple-china-made.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/technology/iphones-apple-... Classic "We moved the supply chain to China because it's cheaper --> We can't build stuff in the US - all the factories are in China!"

owens99 8y ago
Your points do not counter what I am saying. Infact, I agree with both of your points. The problem is, supply chains are not as entrenched as you claim. Given a long enough time horizon and advanced enough automation, robots will move back to USA. Especially consider the IP risks and political concerns WRT China. It will take a long time for all industries, some will happen before others, but there will be more vertical integration through automation and it will become more cost effective to have factories (not jobs, there will be no jobs from this) for products next to the markets they serve. This is what most economists believe, and what the Chinese government believes, which is why they are pushing to develop AI and innovation.
randcraw 8y ago
But factories won't physically move at all. As costs change, makers will just spend money to create new factories wherever costs are lowest -- labor, raw materials, power, regulations, shipping. The old factories (and companies) will close, as they did in the US starting in the 1960's, and new ones will arise somewhere else, usually run by someone else. The effect will be the same though: the site of manufacturing will change. But like the Star Trek transporter, no matter actually gets moved.
- deogeo 8y ago
  Careful - that something happened in the past is no guarantee it'll happen again, especially if conditions change. > wherever costs are lowest -- labor, raw materials, power, regulations, shipping. Due to automation, labor costs will be less and less of a factor. Ocean shipping is already very cheap, and comprises a negligible fraction of the cost of most products - it's how markets in Europe are full of Chinese garlic. Raw materials can be shipped, so those are also not much of a factor. That leaves only power and regulations as factors. A smart country is likely to make sure those don't work against it, and to outsource only the most environmentally-harmful production steps. There are still tariffs, but being willing to host polluting industries is otherwise dangerously close to being the only advantage an under-developed country has left.

by deogeo 8y ago

owens99 8y ago

Your points do not counter what I am saying. Infact, I agree with both of your points. The problem is, supply chains are not as entrenched as you claim. Given a long enough time horizon and advanced enough automation, robots will move back to USA. Especially consider the IP risks and political concerns WRT China. It will take a long time for all industries, some will happen before others, but there will be more vertical integration through automation and it will become more cost effective to have factories (not jobs, there will be no jobs from this) for products next to the markets they serve. This is what most economists believe, and what the Chinese government believes, which is why they are pushing to develop AI and innovation.

randcraw 8y ago

But factories won't physically move at all. As costs change, makers will just spend money to create new factories wherever costs are lowest -- labor, raw materials, power, regulations, shipping. The old factories (and companies) will close, as they did in the US starting in the 1960's, and new ones will arise somewhere else, usually run by someone else. The effect will be the same though: the site of manufacturing will change. But like the Star Trek transporter, no matter actually gets moved.

deogeo 8y ago
Careful - that something happened in the past is no guarantee it'll happen again, especially if conditions change. > wherever costs are lowest -- labor, raw materials, power, regulations, shipping. Due to automation, labor costs will be less and less of a factor. Ocean shipping is already very cheap, and comprises a negligible fraction of the cost of most products - it's how markets in Europe are full of Chinese garlic. Raw materials can be shipped, so those are also not much of a factor. That leaves only power and regulations as factors. A smart country is likely to make sure those don't work against it, and to outsource only the most environmentally-harmful production steps. There are still tariffs, but being willing to host polluting industries is otherwise dangerously close to being the only advantage an under-developed country has left.