3 ms·

Do you really believe that the Iranian government didn't already know what various other middle eastern governments thought of it? I mean, is your assumption th

Do you really believe that the Iranian government didn't already know what various other middle eastern governments thought of it? I mean, is your assumption that American government officials, with their outstanding history of sophisticated and successful intelligence gathering in the middle east (read: failure without end) have been more successful than the Iranian regime at local intelligence gathering? That seems...fanciful, and perhaps indicative of western arrogance. More to the point, this whole notion that the current Iranian regime would start a war for no other reason than because some other government said mean things about it is...not terribly well supported by evidence.

hugh3 16y ago
Do you really believe that the Iranian government didn't already know what various other middle eastern governments thought of it? Ah, but diplomacy is so often less about who knows what and so often about who has plausible deniability. Iran knows that the Saudis hate them. And the Saudis know that the Iranians know that they hate them and so forth. But to have it publicly acknowledged and on the record that they hate each other makes things more difficult if they ever need to cooperate. For instance, now that the Saudis are officially on the record as saying the US should bomb Iran, we can rule out the possibility of using the Saudis as a go-between or an "honest broker" for some kind of negotiated settlement with the Iranians. Not that it was necessarily going to happen, but the possibility is pretty much ruled out due to the embarrassment it would cause all round. It's not that Iran is going to attack Saudi Arabia because the King said mean things; it's just that the Saudis and the Iranians can no longer pretend publicly that they don't hate each other. That's just one example, there's any number of other ways that bringing unpleasant truths to the surface can spoil already-weak relationships, as anyone who has ever been in a weak relationship can tell you.
- MichaelSalib 16y ago
  the Saudis and the Iranians can no longer pretend publicly that they don't hate each other. Why not? Everyone with a brain already knew that the Saudi regime hate the Iranian regime. The cables do nothing to change that. And really, the fact is, Saudi Arabia's King's opinions on Iran have zero bearing on whether the US invades Iran. I don't see what exactly distinguishes your claims about the probability of war increasing due to this "revelation" from magical thinking. That's just one example, there's any number of other ways that bringing unpleasant truths to the surface can spoil already-weak relationships, as anyone who has ever been in a weak relationship can tell you. I don't think that one's love life or startup business experience really equips the average person to correctly understand international diplomacy. You say this is just one example: OK, please list some more. Or flesh out this one to the point where it actually makes sense.

hugh3 16y ago

Do you really believe that the Iranian government didn't already know what various other middle eastern governments thought of it? Ah, but diplomacy is so often less about who knows what and so often about who has plausible deniability. Iran knows that the Saudis hate them. And the Saudis know that the Iranians know that they hate them and so forth. But to have it publicly acknowledged and on the record that they hate each other makes things more difficult if they ever need to cooperate. For instance, now that the Saudis are officially on the record as saying the US should bomb Iran, we can rule out the possibility of using the Saudis as a go-between or an "honest broker" for some kind of negotiated settlement with the Iranians. Not that it was necessarily going to happen, but the possibility is pretty much ruled out due to the embarrassment it would cause all round. It's not that Iran is going to attack Saudi Arabia because the King said mean things; it's just that the Saudis and the Iranians can no longer pretend publicly that they don't hate each other. That's just one example, there's any number of other ways that bringing unpleasant truths to the surface can spoil already-weak relationships, as anyone who has ever been in a weak relationship can tell you.

MichaelSalib 16y ago
the Saudis and the Iranians can no longer pretend publicly that they don't hate each other. Why not? Everyone with a brain already knew that the Saudi regime hate the Iranian regime. The cables do nothing to change that. And really, the fact is, Saudi Arabia's King's opinions on Iran have zero bearing on whether the US invades Iran. I don't see what exactly distinguishes your claims about the probability of war increasing due to this "revelation" from magical thinking. That's just one example, there's any number of other ways that bringing unpleasant truths to the surface can spoil already-weak relationships, as anyone who has ever been in a weak relationship can tell you. I don't think that one's love life or startup business experience really equips the average person to correctly understand international diplomacy. You say this is just one example: OK, please list some more. Or flesh out this one to the point where it actually makes sense.