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> Never am I confused at what it's doing: I have a perfect mental model of the machine that I then use to reason about it's behavior. This seems to be making a

> Never am I confused at what it's doing: I have a perfect mental model of the machine that I then use to reason about it's behavior. This seems to be making a good case against your point. Despite what you say here, motorcycles are horribly dangerous compared to a car. Having a good mental model is just not that relevant to safety. Often we specifically make things safe by not leaving a human fully and completely in charge, because humans are imperfect and make mistakes. > With a car or in the 737 Max case, the user is unable to develop a mental model of the machine, thus making correct and safe operation difficult. Planes are extremely safe. People fearing planes because they don't control them is even a known phobia.

perl4ever 8y ago
"Despite what you say here, motorcycles are horribly dangerous compared to a car" Well, to some extent motorcycles are very dangerous because the people who ride them tend to be risk takers and not too bright. For instance, you often see people on motorcycles riding very close to other vehicles, because the power to weight ratio gives you a feeling of maneuverability and speed compared to cars and therefore people assume they can anticipate and avoid cars. Banking into a turn makes you feel like you can go faster than a car. But motorcycles are less able to corner and brake than cars at the limit, so a rational person would leave as much or more space. Another point is that there's no reason to think that people on motorcycles use alcohol and drugs at the same rate as people in cars. But riding a motorcycle doesn't in itself make you ride impaired. In other words, I think you (like an awful lot of people do) are ignoring the fundamental nature of statistics, that they are based on a certain context where you know some things and don't know others. When the context is not appropriate, the numbers are not valid.
- projektir 8y ago
  Not sold. Motorcycles are inherently unsafe because they are extremely unprotected - there is very little you can really do against a driver making a mistake. And the reason most people riding them are risk takers is because everyone else has enough sense to not ride them. I knew a person who was a careful type, always wanted a motorcycle, took classes, rode carefully, had full protective gear, etc. And he did it for a while but driving in traffic he realized that very little protected him from death. He discontinued eventually. Generally, "but I'm special, I'm different" is not a great assumption for safety. The average car driver is not great, either, but they're still not dying in the same amounts.

perl4ever 8y ago

"Despite what you say here, motorcycles are horribly dangerous compared to a car" Well, to some extent motorcycles are very dangerous because the people who ride them tend to be risk takers and not too bright. For instance, you often see people on motorcycles riding very close to other vehicles, because the power to weight ratio gives you a feeling of maneuverability and speed compared to cars and therefore people assume they can anticipate and avoid cars. Banking into a turn makes you feel like you can go faster than a car. But motorcycles are less able to corner and brake than cars at the limit, so a rational person would leave as much or more space. Another point is that there's no reason to think that people on motorcycles use alcohol and drugs at the same rate as people in cars. But riding a motorcycle doesn't in itself make you ride impaired. In other words, I think you (like an awful lot of people do) are ignoring the fundamental nature of statistics, that they are based on a certain context where you know some things and don't know others. When the context is not appropriate, the numbers are not valid.

projektir 8y ago
Not sold. Motorcycles are inherently unsafe because they are extremely unprotected - there is very little you can really do against a driver making a mistake. And the reason most people riding them are risk takers is because everyone else has enough sense to not ride them. I knew a person who was a careful type, always wanted a motorcycle, took classes, rode carefully, had full protective gear, etc. And he did it for a while but driving in traffic he realized that very little protected him from death. He discontinued eventually. Generally, "but I'm special, I'm different" is not a great assumption for safety. The average car driver is not great, either, but they're still not dying in the same amounts.