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Show HN: A social platform to record and debate predictions of the future
- tompec 8y agoHi there, My friend Nathan and I recently launched Predibly.com: a social platform to publicly share your predictions of the future and have interesting conversations about them. Nathan had the idea last week, I build the MVP and we'd love to know your thoughts!
- anigbrowl 8y agoIt's cool. Develop an abuse flagging policy early.
- zakishaheen 8y agoAwesome. What was the tech stack you used?
- mgraczyk 8y agoI have a similar site I've been working on, although ours is more focused on betting and quantifying accuracy. It's https://hunches.app https://hunches.app
- unusximmortalis 8y agoWho's validating if I am right and the crowd is wrong?
- paulgb 8y agoNote for US users, this is buried in the TOS: > If the User is a U.S. Person, User represents that user is an accredited investor https://hunches.app/terms-of-service https://hunches.app/terms-of-service
- jobigoud 8y agoI like it! Love that you can sort by time of prediction or by time of post/popularity. Sort by "controversial" could be nice. As soon as you have more than a dozen you will need tags or category. Tech, science, politics, sports... will cater to vastly different people and foster different discussions. I don't like the fact that Twitter is required to sign up.
- tompec 8y agoGlad you like the idea! Categories are on our list of features to implement. We're thinking about hashtags like Twitter does. Yeah, Signup with Twitter was mostly to accelerate the development time but an email signup will be introduced in the future as we're aware that some people prefer this way.
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- wiggler00m 8y agoSuggestion: require "skin in the game" ie. make predictors risk something of value (with commensurate chance of gain if their prediction manifests). This would likely increase prediction quality/accuracy.
- HHalvi 8y agoWhenever you get stuff wrong show "Oh, That was a Black Swan" somewhere ;)
- unusximmortalis 8y agoWho will validate the predictions? Manual validation will not scale.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- Geee 8y agoThere's Augur https://www.augur.net/ https://www.augur.net/ that's a decentralized protocol for predictions. You can bet on predictions or use the prediction and outcome data in your decisions.
- azimovsky 8y agoNice design.
- chobeat 8y agoI can't wait for all the STEMlords and edgy kids from r/futurology to blabber about Elon bringing them to Mars.
- johnchristopher 8y agoIs there an API? Could I build a betting site around it?
- zbuf 8y agoNice idea! In case you haven't seen it, this site uses a similar concept: http://longbets.org/ http://longbets.org/
- unusximmortalis 8y agoJeff (AWS) funded this one.
- hestefisk 8y agoNice. Imagine with a BTC betting api on top.
- BeniBoy 8y agoA relevant episode of EconTalk[1]. If I remember correctly, Philip Tetlock is running a continuous betting project to try to determine what characterize good forecasters. [1]:https://www.econtalk.org/philip-tetlock-on-superforecasting/?highlight=[%22tetlock%22,%22on%22,%22superforecasting%22,%22%22] https://www.econtalk.org/philip-tetlock-on-superforecasting/...
- paulgb 8y agoDirect link to the project: https://www.gjopen.com/ https://www.gjopen.com/
- danielscrubs 8y agoI really like the design! I would like a filter for controversial, having people add: The earth will still exist in 2020, is not so interesting. I normally don't like leaderboards, but in this case, it would be nice if and only if it was weighted by how controversial the prediction is.
- chdaniel 8y agoHow about infinite scroll?
- black_puppydog 8y agoNobody suggest having a "prediction reputation" that keeps track of the quality of people's predictions? Like, after the even should have taken place, open it up for up/down votes or such?
- antpls 8y agoInteresting, but there is no legal disclaimer, about page, corporation, cookie usage information, etc Does that mean you don't log in anyway any information about visitor, and that you share all gathered information by contributors with the public ? For example, where can I download the whole database of prediction, with votes, comments and history ? If I can't, I'm assuming this is not fully public and you potentially use my data as a visitor and/or contributor to make money, and you therefore need a legal entity to represent the website.
- fiatjaf 8y agoC'mon, it's a side project. Let the person develop some functionality before expecting him to add all this useless legal mumbo-jumbo.
- antpls 8y agoSorry, but I care about my rights, even if you are only experimenting ideas.
- buzzerbetrayed 8y agoIt isn’t your “right” to demand that he follows your countries local laws, especially if he isn’t from your country. He is well within his right to make the website exactly how it is, and you are well within your rights not to visit it.
- antpls 8y agoTrue, and I made my decision. I only wanted to warn about it to other people who might browse here. The intent of the website is not clear.
- vcavallo 8y agodo they need a legal entity to profit off your data if you are willingly giving it up to them, unaware of what they'll do with it?
- Emma_Goldman 8y agoThe problem with this is that predictions should, ideally, be clearly specified, offer a percentage estimate (0-100% likelihood), and have some reliable method of validating the outcome. The Good Judgement Project does all these things: https://www.gjopen.com/ https://www.gjopen.com/ This website, on the other hand, seems to encourage none of these epistemic virtues. It's people making more or less precise verbal predictions on twitter and then assessing themselves.
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- lettergram 8y agoIf you haven’t seen it, I recommend predictionbook.com. Honestly, not as nice as what was shared from a UI perspective. However, the user experience on predictionbook.com appears better. https://predictionbook.com/ https://predictionbook.com/
- binaryorganic 8y agoMy favorite prediction from a similar site: http://longbets.org/601/ http://longbets.org/601/ Jeremy Keith bet that “The original URL for this prediction (www.longbets.org/601) will no longer be available in eleven years.” He looks set to lose, which is great news for him, honestly.