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I am guessing that "before" means that the inversion persisted until the economy was technically in recession.
by mannykannot 8y ago
I am guessing that "before" means that the inversion persisted until the economy was technically in recession.
- tfehring 8y agoNot quite - see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M for reference. The grey areas are recessions, and values below 0 are inversions. To address the GP’s point, the relationship could be fabricated, but the data don’t indicate that that’s happening.