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That's true, and yet we already have a $20-30 billion (depending on who you ask) industrial robotics market. There are a large number of highly profitible robo

by ddeck 8y ago

That's true, and yet we already have a $20-30 billion (depending on who you ask) industrial robotics market. There are a large number of highly profitible robotics companies in this area. Fanuc with over $1 billion in net income from about $5 billion in revenue stands out[0], but also ABB ($2 billion in net income from $34 billion in revenue)[1], Omron, Kuka, etc. They not be as interesting to report on as humanoid models, or the consumer market, but it's an enormous, rapidly growing market. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FANUC https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FANUC [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ABB_Group https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ABB_Group

abakker 8y ago
Yeah - those robotics company do exactly that stuff which is too dangerous or too repetitive for humans. There's also the issue of strength. Robots are a good candidate for handling materials when people literally can't. But, yeah, those robots don't look like people. Here's an interesting fact. Most people think of forklifts as being stronger than people, and that we use them to lift stuff that people can't. That's true. But, what most people don't think about is why it can lift stuff like that. Hydraulic multiplication provides the power to actually do the lifting, but, a human shaped robot with the same hydraulics couldn't. Most forklifts weight about 3x the weight of a car and are mostly filled with lead. The same will go for robots. the form factor of improving human strength doesn't really benefit from changing the strength to weight ratio, it benefits from scaling both. edit: as context, the average forklift is so heavy that when put on a trailer they exceed the tow rating of 1500-class pickup.
- Swizec 8y ago
  I never thought of this and now that you told me it makes so much sense. Obviously a fork lift that isn’t heavy enough couldn’t lift heavy stuff because it would just tip over. It doesn’t matter how strong you are if you don’t have the mass to balance what you’re holding. Mind blown.
- dsfyu404ed 8y ago
  This is a mischaracterization of the size and operational use of the average forklift. Small (like under 5k curb weight) forklifts outnumber the big guys by an order of magnitude. If you count the small ones that the big box stores use I'd say it's two orders of magnitude. Most fork lifts are used to move small (<1000lb) things on pallets in indoor settings. I personally think human form factor robots are a dead end but if the Incredible Hulkbot was as readily available as a forklift then then you wouldn't see so many things being palletized in the first place because you'd just have Hulkbot move them. The reason we have so many fork lifts is because we've settled on the pallet as a form factor and forklifts are good at moving pallets.
  - abakker 8y ago
    Maybe so - I looked around on practical machinist and on some of the website before making that statement and found that few items that really looked like forklifts were available that had load capacities under 3-5K, so those probably weight about 2x their load capacity. the kind of ride-behind pallet movers aren't really forklifts, but obviously do come with lighter duty availability. For reference, a pallet of bottled water weighs about 2000lbs. and most big box stores would rather operate forklifts with some capacity overhead.
- seppel 8y ago
  > The same will go for robots. the form factor of improving human strength doesn't really benefit from changing the strength to weight ratio, it benefits from scaling both. Yes, to lift 10t, you need the material and support to lift 10t. But a robot the size and weight of a child is much stronger and faster than any human and can easily kill one with the wrong movement. That's why they often are not allowed to work in the same location as humans. There are currently exoskeletons developed to bring human strength back on par. But the speed race for anything repetitive is lost.
zaroth 8y ago
$20 - $30 bullion sounds much too small to be the robotics market. With all the fearmongering of “robots taking your jobs” I would have guessed the overall market was at least 10x that.
- Invictus0 8y ago
  Sounds like you're conflating automation and robotics: not necessarily the same thing.

by ddeck 8y ago

abakker 8y ago

Yeah - those robotics company do exactly that stuff which is too dangerous or too repetitive for humans. There's also the issue of strength. Robots are a good candidate for handling materials when people literally can't. But, yeah, those robots don't look like people. Here's an interesting fact. Most people think of forklifts as being stronger than people, and that we use them to lift stuff that people can't. That's true. But, what most people don't think about is why it can lift stuff like that. Hydraulic multiplication provides the power to actually do the lifting, but, a human shaped robot with the same hydraulics couldn't. Most forklifts weight about 3x the weight of a car and are mostly filled with lead. The same will go for robots. the form factor of improving human strength doesn't really benefit from changing the strength to weight ratio, it benefits from scaling both. edit: as context, the average forklift is so heavy that when put on a trailer they exceed the tow rating of 1500-class pickup.

Swizec 8y ago
I never thought of this and now that you told me it makes so much sense. Obviously a fork lift that isn’t heavy enough couldn’t lift heavy stuff because it would just tip over. It doesn’t matter how strong you are if you don’t have the mass to balance what you’re holding. Mind blown.
dsfyu404ed 8y ago
This is a mischaracterization of the size and operational use of the average forklift. Small (like under 5k curb weight) forklifts outnumber the big guys by an order of magnitude. If you count the small ones that the big box stores use I'd say it's two orders of magnitude. Most fork lifts are used to move small (<1000lb) things on pallets in indoor settings. I personally think human form factor robots are a dead end but if the Incredible Hulkbot was as readily available as a forklift then then you wouldn't see so many things being palletized in the first place because you'd just have Hulkbot move them. The reason we have so many fork lifts is because we've settled on the pallet as a form factor and forklifts are good at moving pallets.
- abakker 8y ago
  Maybe so - I looked around on practical machinist and on some of the website before making that statement and found that few items that really looked like forklifts were available that had load capacities under 3-5K, so those probably weight about 2x their load capacity. the kind of ride-behind pallet movers aren't really forklifts, but obviously do come with lighter duty availability. For reference, a pallet of bottled water weighs about 2000lbs. and most big box stores would rather operate forklifts with some capacity overhead.
seppel 8y ago
> The same will go for robots. the form factor of improving human strength doesn't really benefit from changing the strength to weight ratio, it benefits from scaling both. Yes, to lift 10t, you need the material and support to lift 10t. But a robot the size and weight of a child is much stronger and faster than any human and can easily kill one with the wrong movement. That's why they often are not allowed to work in the same location as humans. There are currently exoskeletons developed to bring human strength back on par. But the speed race for anything repetitive is lost.

zaroth 8y ago

$20 - $30 bullion sounds much too small to be the robotics market. With all the fearmongering of “robots taking your jobs” I would have guessed the overall market was at least 10x that.

Invictus0 8y ago
Sounds like you're conflating automation and robotics: not necessarily the same thing.