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There's nothing in there that explains how we'll get away from car ownership. In order for car ownership to be a thing of the past, we'll need a cheaper option

There's nothing in there that explains how we'll get away from car ownership. In order for car ownership to be a thing of the past, we'll need a cheaper option. But what? Wait 10 min for an uber to arrive everytime i need to go to work? Not happening in this country, that's for sure. Flying cars will probably never arrive, the regulations won't allow it. Maybe Autonomous cars could do it, but they are another 20 to 40 years into the future: maybe then.

bryanlarsen 8y ago
A car costs about $6000 per year, so about $30 per workday. That makes sense if your Uber costs about the same price, but if you can uber each way for $5, most people would be willing to wait 10 minutes to save $20.
- clarry 8y ago
  > A car costs about $6000 per year, so about $30 per workday. And I thought owning cars in America was comparatively cheap. Meanwhile in Finland, 500-600 eur is enough to cover my tax & insurance. I'm coming close to 2000 eur on repairs and maintenance but I've got somewhat expensive and unusual stuff in this year's bill (like a new bumper & paint job). The rest is all gasoline. About 100 eur per refill, and that's usually enough for a month. Add up, 3800 eur. It's been by and far my most expensive year yet!
  - s_y_n_t_a_x 8y ago
    OP is dead wrong on those costs. It's extremely cheap to own a car in America.
- wahern 8y ago
  Latest research shows ride sharing increasing traffic by 180%. Time is money, and even with driverless cars I don't think we'll ever get close to $5. What we need is more mass transit. Perhaps one day tiny driverless cars that circulate near a mass transit stop can be used to overcome our density deficit. That way they'd stay off heavily traveled corridors, helping improve transit times rather than lengthening them.
- s_y_n_t_a_x 8y ago
  An Uber being $5 is generous. I commuted 20 minutes to work everyday, that would be $10 in my area. 20 minutes is a decently low commute time too. Imagine having to commute an hour! Also, there's a shortage of Uber drivers as is, so the solution to no cars is... more cars? Driverless cars are very far in the distance, so I don't see the "soon" happening in this title. I mean, how stupid is it to think paying someone else to drive you around in their car, is cheaper than owning your own car.
- michaelmrose 8y ago
  I bought a car for 6000 9 years ago. I have probably put about 1000ish into it. That is $2.13 per day. Gas and licensing is another $600 per year so another $1.64. This is $3.77 per day. Many people have fewer cars than they do family members and all family members depend on them. This may be a house of 3 with 1 car or 4 or 5 with 2 cars. Uber doesn't at present nor will they any time soon offer a $5 anywhere you want to go fare. When I have looked because of some logistical snafu suggested alternative transportation fares seemed to be in the $10-$15 range one way. This is true even as uber operates at a substantial loss. Basically your scenario in which uber represents a savings involves choosing a high cost of car ownership for a single owner who only uses their car to commute 3 miles away at a price subsidized by ubers investors. Back in reality land a household may trivially consume 5 rides daily at $15 per at a daily cost of $75 or $27375 per year. Cost sensitive buyers could almost certainly save money by buying cheaper cars not by switching to uber. Uber will never be an economical alternative to car ownership while it requires a drivers butt in a seat.
- masonic 8y ago
  A car costs about $6000 per year, so about $30 per workday IRS all-encompassing mileage rate is $0.545 per mile, so that would mean 55 miles a workday -- far above average.
  - c17r 8y ago
    FYI, The 2019 mileage rate is $0.58/mile
0xffff2 8y ago
For what it's worth, I work on research that will ultimately define the rules for package delivering drones and Uber air taxis (both of which fall under the umbrella term "Urban Air Mobility"). Even as I work on these things, I have serious doubts about their technical and economic feasibility, but I'm fairly certain that there will be a regulatory framework (in the US anyway) in place within the next decade to allow them if they are otherwise viable. Incidentally, it would cost you ~$10k-20k to get a sport pilot's license, but that would basically allow you to own and operate a non-autonomous flying car today if it were technically and economically feasible.

bryanlarsen 8y ago

A car costs about $6000 per year, so about $30 per workday. That makes sense if your Uber costs about the same price, but if you can uber each way for $5, most people would be willing to wait 10 minutes to save $20.

clarry 8y ago
> A car costs about $6000 per year, so about $30 per workday. And I thought owning cars in America was comparatively cheap. Meanwhile in Finland, 500-600 eur is enough to cover my tax & insurance. I'm coming close to 2000 eur on repairs and maintenance but I've got somewhat expensive and unusual stuff in this year's bill (like a new bumper & paint job). The rest is all gasoline. About 100 eur per refill, and that's usually enough for a month. Add up, 3800 eur. It's been by and far my most expensive year yet!
- s_y_n_t_a_x 8y ago
  OP is dead wrong on those costs. It's extremely cheap to own a car in America.
wahern 8y ago
Latest research shows ride sharing increasing traffic by 180%. Time is money, and even with driverless cars I don't think we'll ever get close to $5. What we need is more mass transit. Perhaps one day tiny driverless cars that circulate near a mass transit stop can be used to overcome our density deficit. That way they'd stay off heavily traveled corridors, helping improve transit times rather than lengthening them.
s_y_n_t_a_x 8y ago
An Uber being $5 is generous. I commuted 20 minutes to work everyday, that would be $10 in my area. 20 minutes is a decently low commute time too. Imagine having to commute an hour! Also, there's a shortage of Uber drivers as is, so the solution to no cars is... more cars? Driverless cars are very far in the distance, so I don't see the "soon" happening in this title. I mean, how stupid is it to think paying someone else to drive you around in their car, is cheaper than owning your own car.
michaelmrose 8y ago
I bought a car for 6000 9 years ago. I have probably put about 1000ish into it. That is $2.13 per day. Gas and licensing is another $600 per year so another $1.64. This is $3.77 per day. Many people have fewer cars than they do family members and all family members depend on them. This may be a house of 3 with 1 car or 4 or 5 with 2 cars. Uber doesn't at present nor will they any time soon offer a $5 anywhere you want to go fare. When I have looked because of some logistical snafu suggested alternative transportation fares seemed to be in the $10-$15 range one way. This is true even as uber operates at a substantial loss. Basically your scenario in which uber represents a savings involves choosing a high cost of car ownership for a single owner who only uses their car to commute 3 miles away at a price subsidized by ubers investors. Back in reality land a household may trivially consume 5 rides daily at $15 per at a daily cost of $75 or $27375 per year. Cost sensitive buyers could almost certainly save money by buying cheaper cars not by switching to uber. Uber will never be an economical alternative to car ownership while it requires a drivers butt in a seat.
masonic 8y ago
A car costs about $6000 per year, so about $30 per workday IRS all-encompassing mileage rate is $0.545 per mile, so that would mean 55 miles a workday -- far above average.
- c17r 8y ago
  FYI, The 2019 mileage rate is $0.58/mile

0xffff2 8y ago

For what it's worth, I work on research that will ultimately define the rules for package delivering drones and Uber air taxis (both of which fall under the umbrella term "Urban Air Mobility"). Even as I work on these things, I have serious doubts about their technical and economic feasibility, but I'm fairly certain that there will be a regulatory framework (in the US anyway) in place within the next decade to allow them if they are otherwise viable. Incidentally, it would cost you ~$10k-20k to get a sport pilot's license, but that would basically allow you to own and operate a non-autonomous flying car today if it were technically and economically feasible.