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One data point: in NYC, wash and fold laundry service costs me ~$15 every 2 weeks. It would take 5 years (133 loads) for the robot to break-even and that's not

One data point: in NYC, wash and fold laundry service costs me ~$15 every 2 weeks. It would take 5 years (133 loads) for the robot to break-even and that's not counting soap or the time-value of money. Granted my clothes are relatively simple and non-delicate, but if the robot must handle delicates it will likely increase the costs as well. The number one blind-spot for robotics projects is ignoring the availability of cheap (and often illegal) immigrant labor in most major locales. Western programmers think of most physical labor as abhorrent but working in a laundry in Western countries is often much better paid and comfortable than the alternatives back home. Plus your children typically have access to much higher education and opportunities.

tlb 8y ago
A 5 year ROI isn't fatal. When people buy cars rather than taking taxis, the ROI is > 5 years. Many emerging technologies (solar panels, electric cars) start gaining market share when the ROI is in the 20-30 year range.
- jelling 8y ago
  We'd have to define success. The adoption rate for washer/dryer's is what a VC would want to see and solar panels are nowhere near that.
  - tlb 8y ago
    Solar panels are a $40B/yr industry! Many investors have done extremely well in it. The best time to invest is when the adoption rate is still low, not when most people already have one.
hhs 8y ago
Yeah, that's been my observation too. I used to live in NYC and felt that. I empathize. Then I moved to Cambridge, UK, for some time and was surprised at how much dry cleaning would cost; it was quite expensive so I cut down on that. With respect to labor, I also think robotics needs to consider humans as a variable in the equation, especially if they want to compete on a task that it's easy to substitute. This gets into politics, too, and it's a question worth thinking about. I wonder: as generations change, now that we're going from Baby Boomers to Millennials to Gen Z, how will this impact views and policies?

tlb 8y ago

A 5 year ROI isn't fatal. When people buy cars rather than taking taxis, the ROI is > 5 years. Many emerging technologies (solar panels, electric cars) start gaining market share when the ROI is in the 20-30 year range.

jelling 8y ago
We'd have to define success. The adoption rate for washer/dryer's is what a VC would want to see and solar panels are nowhere near that.
- tlb 8y ago
  Solar panels are a $40B/yr industry! Many investors have done extremely well in it. The best time to invest is when the adoption rate is still low, not when most people already have one.

hhs 8y ago

Yeah, that's been my observation too. I used to live in NYC and felt that. I empathize. Then I moved to Cambridge, UK, for some time and was surprised at how much dry cleaning would cost; it was quite expensive so I cut down on that. With respect to labor, I also think robotics needs to consider humans as a variable in the equation, especially if they want to compete on a task that it's easy to substitute. This gets into politics, too, and it's a question worth thinking about. I wonder: as generations change, now that we're going from Baby Boomers to Millennials to Gen Z, how will this impact views and policies?