It isn't certain that an earthquake would happen either way. Take the example of a spaghetti noodle. If you bend it and it breaks, it releases a lot of energy d

It isn't certain that an earthquake would happen either way. Take the example of a spaghetti noodle. If you bend it and it breaks, it releases a lot of energy due to the bending stress. If you introduce a defect in the middle of it, it breaks before building up that much stress. However, we don't know if whatever is bending the noddle would eventually do so until it breaks. Maybe it wouldn't.