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The Airbus A320neo production lines are booked through 2025. Airlines and leasing companies can't really cancel their 737 Max orders and buy A320neos instead. M

The Airbus A320neo production lines are booked through 2025. Airlines and leasing companies can't really cancel their 737 Max orders and buy A320neos instead. Maybe Airbus can get more orders for other models if buyers decide to go with Airbus instead of Boeing for larger planes, but that can also be an expensive switch to make if their pilots are certified for the Boeing but not the Airbus models. There are plenty of factors at play here.

daddylonglegs 8y ago
It's true that both Airbus and Boeing have a huge backlog of orders for aircraft at the moment, with a lot of growth in air travel in Asia. However, the airline industry is cyclical and the current boom might be particularly big because of very low interest rates. Many aircraft are bought and leased through third party companies and everything is heavily financialised (these days, what isn't?). Additionally there are manufacturers (including a Chinese company) trying to break into the short haul market. If there is a large bust there will be a lot of orders cancelled and these cancellations may hit Boeing harder than it's competitors. A bad knock on internal and external confidence in both Boeing and the FAA could have lasting repercussions, Boeing might find it harder and slower to develop new aircraft if they and the FAA have to rebuild institutional capability and then convince the world that they have done so. The recent investigation by the Seattle Times makes for grim reading: https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/failed-certification-faa-missed-safety-issues-in-the-737-max-system-implicated-in-the-lion-air-crash/ https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/faile...
- mrhappyunhappy 8y ago
  Seems neither the FAA nor Boeing can be trusted. How can anyone without expert knowledge have the final say so in technical certification? It sounds like FAA just chose to cut corners and passed the problem down to the company. Do family members of victims have a solid case for lawsuits here? I hope they do because this process has to change if the people are to trust in those who are supposed to be looking out for safety.

daddylonglegs 8y ago

It's true that both Airbus and Boeing have a huge backlog of orders for aircraft at the moment, with a lot of growth in air travel in Asia. However, the airline industry is cyclical and the current boom might be particularly big because of very low interest rates. Many aircraft are bought and leased through third party companies and everything is heavily financialised (these days, what isn't?). Additionally there are manufacturers (including a Chinese company) trying to break into the short haul market. If there is a large bust there will be a lot of orders cancelled and these cancellations may hit Boeing harder than it's competitors. A bad knock on internal and external confidence in both Boeing and the FAA could have lasting repercussions, Boeing might find it harder and slower to develop new aircraft if they and the FAA have to rebuild institutional capability and then convince the world that they have done so. The recent investigation by the Seattle Times makes for grim reading: https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/failed-certification-faa-missed-safety-issues-in-the-737-max-system-implicated-in-the-lion-air-crash/ https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/faile...

mrhappyunhappy 8y ago
Seems neither the FAA nor Boeing can be trusted. How can anyone without expert knowledge have the final say so in technical certification? It sounds like FAA just chose to cut corners and passed the problem down to the company. Do family members of victims have a solid case for lawsuits here? I hope they do because this process has to change if the people are to trust in those who are supposed to be looking out for safety.