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The peak in the late 80s seems to correlate well with the global phaseout of leaded gasoline. In the US, the phaseout began in the mid 70s and leaded gasoline w

by jayess 8y ago

The peak in the late 80s seems to correlate well with the global phaseout of leaded gasoline. In the US, the phaseout began in the mid 70s and leaded gasoline was completely banned by 1996. > A 1994 study had indicated that the concentration of lead in the blood of the U.S. population had dropped 78% from 1976 to 1991. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetraethyllead#Controversy_and_phase-out https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetraethyllead#Controversy_and...

lostlogin 8y ago
My go-to on this topic is the Mother Jones article by Kevin Drum. It’s great. https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure-gasoline-crime-increase-children-health/ https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposur...
bluedino 8y ago
Leaded gas was in use since the 20's or 30's. Crime/Murders didn't to spike up until 1965. Murders started going down around 1994 or so. And then in the late 2000's, many cities have started to see it go back up. I would wager the reasons for the increase in the late 60's is similar to the recent rise, and that it has nothing to do with lead.
- Gibbon1 8y ago
  You actually need to look at the amount of lead exposure not just when leaded gas was first used.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- ummonk 8y ago
  Lead affects childhood development, and crime happens in adulthood. That lag is exactly what you would expect.
- jahewson 8y ago
  Leaded gasoline was for many years a premium product, patented and produced initially by a single manufacturer. Production really takes off after WWII (3x the amount before the war). Assuming a child takes 20 years to grow up then 1945 + 20 = 1965. That's exactly when we start seeing a sizable jump in crime. Furthermore, lead use increases until a peak around 1970 with violent crime peaking around 1990, 20 years later. In other words, the pattern of violent crime follows the pattern of lead usage +20 years, including a small dip in lead use in the early 1960s which corresponds to a small dip in violent crime in the early 1980s. This isn't just about the start - their entire histories are remarkably correlated.
- bsder 8y ago
  > Leaded gas was in use since the 20's or 30's. There were WAY fewer cars back then. So, you need to look at emission per car*number of cars. A lot of pollution problems peaked in the 1970's--that's the whole reason why a raft of environmental legislation was enacted at that point.
tzs 8y ago
Is there any correlation now between violence and proximity of airports? Aviation still uses leaded gas, and there have been studies finding that children near airports have elevated lead levels [1]. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3230438/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3230438/
- ams6110 8y ago
  Only piston-engined aircraft use leaded gas. That rules out almost 100% of commercial passenger and military aviation. Unlikely that there's enough of this type of exposure to be a real factor. Even this study finds that it affects children living within 500m of a civilian airport and that the level of lead detected was "not especially large." There may be an argument for phasing out leaded avgas, as no amount of lead exposure is good, but it's not likely to have an impact on overall violence in an area, even assuming that lead has anything to do with that in the first place.
essayist 8y ago
Kevin Drum has tracked this in detail. He wrote this in 2018: "It’s important to emphasize that the lead-crime hypothesis doesn’t claim that lead is solely responsible for crime. It primarily explains only one thing: the huge rise in crime of the 70s and 80s and the equally huge—and completely unexpected—decline in crime of the 90s and aughts." https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/02/an-updated-lead-crime-roundup-for-2018/ https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/02/an-updated-le...
- NoodleIncident 8y ago
  Most of the article, but especially the section labeled "Pet Theories" reminds me a lot of this recent XKCD. In the Biffco timeline, everyone has an explanation for how things got as bad as they did, and none of them are a time traveling sports almanac. Seems to be the same way for lead poisoning, for some people at least. https://xkcd.com/2104/ https://xkcd.com/2104/
  - rhizome 8y ago
    "How do you know you're not just a victim of unknowable facts?" is a bad argument.
dontbenebby 8y ago
My pet theory is the combination of a rise in CCTV and cell phones + the increased use of credit cards put a big damper. Think of how many situations would be scary, if it not were for the fact that CCTV and/or a passerby on a phone would lead to a swift arrest? While there will always be smash and grabs and the like, I think smart criminals have realized there are steep penalties for muggings, the response time is much lower than it was previously, and even if you succeed you won't get much out of it since the CCs will soon be cancelled, the phone is IMEI locked, and the wallet only has a twenty.

by jayess 8y ago

lostlogin 8y ago

My go-to on this topic is the Mother Jones article by Kevin Drum. It’s great. https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure-gasoline-crime-increase-children-health/ https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposur...

bluedino 8y ago

Leaded gas was in use since the 20's or 30's. Crime/Murders didn't to spike up until 1965. Murders started going down around 1994 or so. And then in the late 2000's, many cities have started to see it go back up. I would wager the reasons for the increase in the late 60's is similar to the recent rise, and that it has nothing to do with lead.

Gibbon1 8y ago
You actually need to look at the amount of lead exposure not just when leaded gas was first used.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
ummonk 8y ago
Lead affects childhood development, and crime happens in adulthood. That lag is exactly what you would expect.
jahewson 8y ago
Leaded gasoline was for many years a premium product, patented and produced initially by a single manufacturer. Production really takes off after WWII (3x the amount before the war). Assuming a child takes 20 years to grow up then 1945 + 20 = 1965. That's exactly when we start seeing a sizable jump in crime. Furthermore, lead use increases until a peak around 1970 with violent crime peaking around 1990, 20 years later. In other words, the pattern of violent crime follows the pattern of lead usage +20 years, including a small dip in lead use in the early 1960s which corresponds to a small dip in violent crime in the early 1980s. This isn't just about the start - their entire histories are remarkably correlated.
bsder 8y ago
> Leaded gas was in use since the 20's or 30's. There were WAY fewer cars back then. So, you need to look at emission per car*number of cars. A lot of pollution problems peaked in the 1970's--that's the whole reason why a raft of environmental legislation was enacted at that point.

tzs 8y ago

Is there any correlation now between violence and proximity of airports? Aviation still uses leaded gas, and there have been studies finding that children near airports have elevated lead levels [1]. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3230438/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3230438/

ams6110 8y ago
Only piston-engined aircraft use leaded gas. That rules out almost 100% of commercial passenger and military aviation. Unlikely that there's enough of this type of exposure to be a real factor. Even this study finds that it affects children living within 500m of a civilian airport and that the level of lead detected was "not especially large." There may be an argument for phasing out leaded avgas, as no amount of lead exposure is good, but it's not likely to have an impact on overall violence in an area, even assuming that lead has anything to do with that in the first place.

essayist 8y ago

Kevin Drum has tracked this in detail. He wrote this in 2018: "It’s important to emphasize that the lead-crime hypothesis doesn’t claim that lead is solely responsible for crime. It primarily explains only one thing: the huge rise in crime of the 70s and 80s and the equally huge—and completely unexpected—decline in crime of the 90s and aughts." https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/02/an-updated-lead-crime-roundup-for-2018/ https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/02/an-updated-le...

NoodleIncident 8y ago
Most of the article, but especially the section labeled "Pet Theories" reminds me a lot of this recent XKCD. In the Biffco timeline, everyone has an explanation for how things got as bad as they did, and none of them are a time traveling sports almanac. Seems to be the same way for lead poisoning, for some people at least. https://xkcd.com/2104/ https://xkcd.com/2104/
- rhizome 8y ago
  "How do you know you're not just a victim of unknowable facts?" is a bad argument.

dontbenebby 8y ago

My pet theory is the combination of a rise in CCTV and cell phones + the increased use of credit cards put a big damper. Think of how many situations would be scary, if it not were for the fact that CCTV and/or a passerby on a phone would lead to a swift arrest? While there will always be smash and grabs and the like, I think smart criminals have realized there are steep penalties for muggings, the response time is much lower than it was previously, and even if you succeed you won't get much out of it since the CCs will soon be cancelled, the phone is IMEI locked, and the wallet only has a twenty.