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Totally. And yes, no guarantee that battery storage will reach those price levels needed (i.e. if volume dries up). However, for the last 20 or so years there

Totally. And yes, no guarantee that battery storage will reach those price levels needed (i.e. if volume dries up). However, for the last 20 or so years there were chants about the end of Moore's Law. Still appears to be going strong, "somehow". My take on battery storage: several incremental developments coming down the pipeline on the anode and cathode side of li-ion batteries (improved chemistries, less cobalt, increased silicon %, new electrolyte mediums, etc). Combined with the "coming surge" of li-ion batteries and development for upcoming EV models with billions invested in new battery factories, it's hard to not see significant changes to the price within even a decades time.

sbov 8y ago
Although Dennard scaling has been dead for over a decade, which is why we have consumer multicore CPUs.
deleted 8y ago
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jabl 8y ago
> However, for the last 20 or so years there were chants about the end of Moore's Law. Still appears to be going strong, "somehow". Well, Moore's law has already slowed down quite a lot, and in the not too far future we won't be able to miniaturize further since atoms are only so small (e.g. lattice spacing of Si is, from memory so might be wrong, 0.54 nm). Of course, there is hope for various non-Si based electronics; we'll see. > My take on battery storage: several incremental developments coming down the pipeline on the anode and cathode side of li-ion batteries (improved chemistries, less cobalt, increased silicon %, new electrolyte mediums, etc). Combined with the "coming surge" of li-ion batteries and development for upcoming EV models with billions invested in new battery factories, it's hard to not see significant changes to the price within even a decades time. To clarify, I didn't mean to say that we're at the end of the road for battery development today. Just that we cannot expect decades of exponential improvement like we have seen with microchips. I don't think an order of magnitude improvement in price/kWh is out of the question (in terms of kWh/kg it probably is, though?). But two orders of magnitude? Color me skeptical.

sbov 8y ago

Although Dennard scaling has been dead for over a decade, which is why we have consumer multicore CPUs.

deleted 8y ago

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jabl 8y ago

> However, for the last 20 or so years there were chants about the end of Moore's Law. Still appears to be going strong, "somehow". Well, Moore's law has already slowed down quite a lot, and in the not too far future we won't be able to miniaturize further since atoms are only so small (e.g. lattice spacing of Si is, from memory so might be wrong, 0.54 nm). Of course, there is hope for various non-Si based electronics; we'll see. > My take on battery storage: several incremental developments coming down the pipeline on the anode and cathode side of li-ion batteries (improved chemistries, less cobalt, increased silicon %, new electrolyte mediums, etc). Combined with the "coming surge" of li-ion batteries and development for upcoming EV models with billions invested in new battery factories, it's hard to not see significant changes to the price within even a decades time. To clarify, I didn't mean to say that we're at the end of the road for battery development today. Just that we cannot expect decades of exponential improvement like we have seen with microchips. I don't think an order of magnitude improvement in price/kWh is out of the question (in terms of kWh/kg it probably is, though?). But two orders of magnitude? Color me skeptical.