3 ms·
It is distinctly different, but I have to think really hard to follow the practical difference between "If we ran 100 more identical experiments, 95 of them wou
by bunderbunder 8y ago
It is distinctly different, but I have to think really hard to follow the practical difference between "If we ran 100 more identical experiments, 95 of them would estimate a population mean result somewhere in this range", and "There's a 95% probability that the population mean falls somewhere in this range."
The thing that makes it hurt is that what seems like a minor rewording of that statement, "We're 95% confident that the range we calculated contains the true population mean," would be correct. (It's not the definition of a CI, but it is implied by the definition of a CI.) And that the reason why one is true and the other is false is down to the technical distinction that the true population mean is a discrete value and not a draw from a random variable, so, from a strictly mathematical sense, it is nonsensical to apply probabilities to it. By a the same token, an even more subtle rewording gets us back to falsehood: "There's a 95% chance that the range we calculated contains the true population mean."
Which, delving into to that level of hair-splitting makes for interesting math, but also leaves me with the opinion that, sure, the most common intuitive interpretation is wrong, but it's wrong in a way that isn't really of much practical importance.
By contrast, the most common intuitive interpretation of the p-value is disastrously wrong.