4 ms·

> Sorry, but you are incorrect. Technically, every manufactured good has a learning curve. Sure. But at some point physics limits how far you can go. We had a

by jabl 8y ago

> Sorry, but you are incorrect. Technically, every manufactured good has a learning curve. Sure. But at some point physics limits how far you can go. We had a good run for many decades with micro-electronics because it's possible to cram a huge number of transistors on a tiny microchip. For solar cells and batteries we're not that far away from fundamental physical limits. So even though batteries look poised to replace gas for services like frequency control and some peak shaving, they're still orders of magnitude too expensive to allow us to completely run a grid on wind and solar, with no guarantee they will ever actually hit those price levels required.

diafygi 8y ago
What? Wood Mackenzie is predicting that renewables + batteries will be able to beat both peak and baseload by 2035. https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/batteries-renewables-displacing-gas/ https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/batteries-renewables-...
clomond 8y ago
Totally. And yes, no guarantee that battery storage will reach those price levels needed (i.e. if volume dries up). However, for the last 20 or so years there were chants about the end of Moore's Law. Still appears to be going strong, "somehow". My take on battery storage: several incremental developments coming down the pipeline on the anode and cathode side of li-ion batteries (improved chemistries, less cobalt, increased silicon %, new electrolyte mediums, etc). Combined with the "coming surge" of li-ion batteries and development for upcoming EV models with billions invested in new battery factories, it's hard to not see significant changes to the price within even a decades time.
- sbov 8y ago
  Although Dennard scaling has been dead for over a decade, which is why we have consumer multicore CPUs.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- jabl 8y ago
  > However, for the last 20 or so years there were chants about the end of Moore's Law. Still appears to be going strong, "somehow". Well, Moore's law has already slowed down quite a lot, and in the not too far future we won't be able to miniaturize further since atoms are only so small (e.g. lattice spacing of Si is, from memory so might be wrong, 0.54 nm). Of course, there is hope for various non-Si based electronics; we'll see. > My take on battery storage: several incremental developments coming down the pipeline on the anode and cathode side of li-ion batteries (improved chemistries, less cobalt, increased silicon %, new electrolyte mediums, etc). Combined with the "coming surge" of li-ion batteries and development for upcoming EV models with billions invested in new battery factories, it's hard to not see significant changes to the price within even a decades time. To clarify, I didn't mean to say that we're at the end of the road for battery development today. Just that we cannot expect decades of exponential improvement like we have seen with microchips. I don't think an order of magnitude improvement in price/kWh is out of the question (in terms of kWh/kg it probably is, though?). But two orders of magnitude? Color me skeptical.
mbostleman 8y ago
Aside from storing energy from a large array in the desert, won't we still need batteries for transportation in order to get them off fossil fuels? That is, even if my house runs off nuclear and hence no batteries, wouldn't I still need one in my car, hence a lot more innovation is needed in batteries anyway (albeit drastically different types of batteries)?
- jabl 8y ago
  Like I mentioned in an answer to a sibling comment of yours, I didn't mean to say that we're at the end of the road for battery development today. Just that we cannot expect decades of exponential improvement like we have seen with microchips. I don't think an order of magnitude improvement in price/kWh is out of the question (in terms of kWh/kg it probably is, though?). But two orders of magnitude? Color me skeptical. Wrt cars, I think batteries are not too far from being viable to replace most uses in cars, city buses etc. And that will be a massive, and welcome change, in our society. For long-range ships, planes etc. I don't see batteries as viable. My guess would be, for a future decarbonized society, synthetic hydrocarbons for planes and ships; some ships might use hydrogen or nuclear reactors.

by jabl 8y ago

diafygi 8y ago

What? Wood Mackenzie is predicting that renewables + batteries will be able to beat both peak and baseload by 2035. https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/batteries-renewables-displacing-gas/ https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/batteries-renewables-...

clomond 8y ago

Totally. And yes, no guarantee that battery storage will reach those price levels needed (i.e. if volume dries up). However, for the last 20 or so years there were chants about the end of Moore's Law. Still appears to be going strong, "somehow". My take on battery storage: several incremental developments coming down the pipeline on the anode and cathode side of li-ion batteries (improved chemistries, less cobalt, increased silicon %, new electrolyte mediums, etc). Combined with the "coming surge" of li-ion batteries and development for upcoming EV models with billions invested in new battery factories, it's hard to not see significant changes to the price within even a decades time.

sbov 8y ago
Although Dennard scaling has been dead for over a decade, which is why we have consumer multicore CPUs.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
jabl 8y ago
> However, for the last 20 or so years there were chants about the end of Moore's Law. Still appears to be going strong, "somehow". Well, Moore's law has already slowed down quite a lot, and in the not too far future we won't be able to miniaturize further since atoms are only so small (e.g. lattice spacing of Si is, from memory so might be wrong, 0.54 nm). Of course, there is hope for various non-Si based electronics; we'll see. > My take on battery storage: several incremental developments coming down the pipeline on the anode and cathode side of li-ion batteries (improved chemistries, less cobalt, increased silicon %, new electrolyte mediums, etc). Combined with the "coming surge" of li-ion batteries and development for upcoming EV models with billions invested in new battery factories, it's hard to not see significant changes to the price within even a decades time. To clarify, I didn't mean to say that we're at the end of the road for battery development today. Just that we cannot expect decades of exponential improvement like we have seen with microchips. I don't think an order of magnitude improvement in price/kWh is out of the question (in terms of kWh/kg it probably is, though?). But two orders of magnitude? Color me skeptical.

mbostleman 8y ago

Aside from storing energy from a large array in the desert, won't we still need batteries for transportation in order to get them off fossil fuels? That is, even if my house runs off nuclear and hence no batteries, wouldn't I still need one in my car, hence a lot more innovation is needed in batteries anyway (albeit drastically different types of batteries)?

jabl 8y ago
Like I mentioned in an answer to a sibling comment of yours, I didn't mean to say that we're at the end of the road for battery development today. Just that we cannot expect decades of exponential improvement like we have seen with microchips. I don't think an order of magnitude improvement in price/kWh is out of the question (in terms of kWh/kg it probably is, though?). But two orders of magnitude? Color me skeptical. Wrt cars, I think batteries are not too far from being viable to replace most uses in cars, city buses etc. And that will be a massive, and welcome change, in our society. For long-range ships, planes etc. I don't see batteries as viable. My guess would be, for a future decarbonized society, synthetic hydrocarbons for planes and ships; some ships might use hydrogen or nuclear reactors.