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That also depends on the availability of resources. Hopefully a battery technology that requires less scarce resources comes about.

sgc 8y ago
That is something that changes every year as well, and Tesla in particular has greatly cut the scarcer materials in the latest iterations of their batteries.
SECProto 8y ago
Presumably you're referring to Lithium or Cobalt - but the supply of these resources really isnt an issue (at worst, it's an issue of timing). Lithium mines in North America are beginning to reopen [1]. Cobalt is a bit trickier, because it's produced as a byproduct - but Panasonic already has cells working at R&D with dramatically less cobalt [2]. [1] https://www.bba.ca/project/north-american-lithium-mine-restart-in-la-corne/ https://www.bba.ca/project/north-american-lithium-mine-resta... [2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-panasonic-batteries/panasonic-plans-to-halve-cobalt-content-of-car-batteries-in-two-three-years-idUSKBN1K21CK https://www.reuters.com/article/us-panasonic-batteries/panas...
- toomuchtodo 8y ago
  Elon Musk has said on Twitter Tesla intends to produce batteries without any cobalt in the future. And lithium is extremely plentiful as you mention. The materials supply is a non-issue.
  - SECProto 8y ago
    Yes indeed - I just found a different, primary source. Some people (unfairly, I feel) write off anything he says. I saw a cool graph showing how much cell price would change if different material inputs price changed. Essentially, cobalt or lithium could double in price, and the cost of a battery pack for a car would only increase 5-10%. Can't find the exact graph, but this article has quite a lot of detailed info on battery price constituents. http://thedeepdive.ca/lithium-ion-battery-cells-cathodes-and-costs/ http://thedeepdive.ca/lithium-ion-battery-cells-cathodes-and... edit: oo it actually has forecasts for cobalt production and demand showing demand for cobalt higher than supply by 2025. And forecasts that material costs are not likely to drop. And that manufacturers will work other angles of the price equation to get prices lower.

sgc 8y ago

That is something that changes every year as well, and Tesla in particular has greatly cut the scarcer materials in the latest iterations of their batteries.

SECProto 8y ago

Presumably you're referring to Lithium or Cobalt - but the supply of these resources really isnt an issue (at worst, it's an issue of timing). Lithium mines in North America are beginning to reopen [1]. Cobalt is a bit trickier, because it's produced as a byproduct - but Panasonic already has cells working at R&D with dramatically less cobalt [2]. [1] https://www.bba.ca/project/north-american-lithium-mine-restart-in-la-corne/ https://www.bba.ca/project/north-american-lithium-mine-resta... [2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-panasonic-batteries/panasonic-plans-to-halve-cobalt-content-of-car-batteries-in-two-three-years-idUSKBN1K21CK https://www.reuters.com/article/us-panasonic-batteries/panas...

toomuchtodo 8y ago
Elon Musk has said on Twitter Tesla intends to produce batteries without any cobalt in the future. And lithium is extremely plentiful as you mention. The materials supply is a non-issue.
- SECProto 8y ago
  Yes indeed - I just found a different, primary source. Some people (unfairly, I feel) write off anything he says. I saw a cool graph showing how much cell price would change if different material inputs price changed. Essentially, cobalt or lithium could double in price, and the cost of a battery pack for a car would only increase 5-10%. Can't find the exact graph, but this article has quite a lot of detailed info on battery price constituents. http://thedeepdive.ca/lithium-ion-battery-cells-cathodes-and-costs/ http://thedeepdive.ca/lithium-ion-battery-cells-cathodes-and... edit: oo it actually has forecasts for cobalt production and demand showing demand for cobalt higher than supply by 2025. And forecasts that material costs are not likely to drop. And that manufacturers will work other angles of the price equation to get prices lower.