5 ms·

"half the country wants to leave" A slim majority of those who voted, several years ago, stirred up by masses of illegal propaganda, especially in the last day

by Jarmsy 8y ago

"half the country wants to leave" A slim majority of those who voted, several years ago, stirred up by masses of illegal propaganda, especially in the last days before the vote. Now after getting some idea of the reality, the tides look to have significantly changed. Current opinion polls are showing significant majority for remain.(61% in the last YouGov poll) (Also, it was 17 not 33)

nisuni 8y ago
> Current opinion polls Polls before Brexit where wrong, no reasons to trust them now.
- dabeeeenster 8y ago
  They were within a margin of error on the day of the vote.
  - nisuni 8y ago
    That’s false.
bloak 8y ago
According to The Economist, Feb 23, reporting on a YouGov survey in December, 49% support Remain, and that number hasn't changed much. However, the 51% who don't support Remain support a variety of different proposals. To me it seems highly unlikely that any particular proposal would beat Remain in a choice between those two options. Remain is the Condorcet winner. That "61%" is probably about right for what would you'd get for a two-way referendum between Remain and No Deal, or between Remain and May's Deal, but if you were to repeat the Remain-Leave referendum (which would be an insane thing to do - it was madness the first time), I wouldn't be surprised if Leave would win again, by a narrow margin. "Well, if you knows of a better 'ole go to it"?
- gpderetta 8y ago
  A proper followup referendum should be something like this. A) Should we leave? B) if we leave, should be we leave even without a deal with the EU? I.e. two (or more) distinct questions. If you vote no at the fort question, you still get to express your opinion on the second.
  - avar 8y ago
    Doing it this way screws over people whose first choice is a no-deal Brexit, but who would rather stay as a full EU member than accept May's "not quite EU" deal. This is why you do ranked choice voting, which covers any combination of such opinions.
- Jarmsy 8y ago
  Indeed, it was Remain vs multiple incompatible alternatives presented as one (and frequently misrepresented as a totally impossible pick and mix of these incompatible options).
Zenst 8y ago
Please do remember, polls prior to the referendum got it wrong then, probably still will as well. I have found betting odd's to be far superior insight than public opinioin polls and with that, ring up a betting shop and ask them what odds they will give that the UK stays as an EU member, that should give you a fair perspective as unlike polls, any mistake they make costs them money. But for me and many others, polls are futile and so often very very wrong as Brexit and Trump have demonstrated.
- jonplackett 8y ago
  You could have got 8 to 1 on the eve of brexit putting a bet on leave - and that was AFTER they called sunderland which was way more brexity than expect. Still kick myself for not taking that bet. It was similar for Trump too!

by Jarmsy 8y ago

nisuni 8y ago

> Current opinion polls Polls before Brexit where wrong, no reasons to trust them now.

dabeeeenster 8y ago
They were within a margin of error on the day of the vote.
- nisuni 8y ago
  That’s false.

bloak 8y ago

According to The Economist, Feb 23, reporting on a YouGov survey in December, 49% support Remain, and that number hasn't changed much. However, the 51% who don't support Remain support a variety of different proposals. To me it seems highly unlikely that any particular proposal would beat Remain in a choice between those two options. Remain is the Condorcet winner. That "61%" is probably about right for what would you'd get for a two-way referendum between Remain and No Deal, or between Remain and May's Deal, but if you were to repeat the Remain-Leave referendum (which would be an insane thing to do - it was madness the first time), I wouldn't be surprised if Leave would win again, by a narrow margin. "Well, if you knows of a better 'ole go to it"?

gpderetta 8y ago
A proper followup referendum should be something like this. A) Should we leave? B) if we leave, should be we leave even without a deal with the EU? I.e. two (or more) distinct questions. If you vote no at the fort question, you still get to express your opinion on the second.
- avar 8y ago
  Doing it this way screws over people whose first choice is a no-deal Brexit, but who would rather stay as a full EU member than accept May's "not quite EU" deal. This is why you do ranked choice voting, which covers any combination of such opinions.
Jarmsy 8y ago
Indeed, it was Remain vs multiple incompatible alternatives presented as one (and frequently misrepresented as a totally impossible pick and mix of these incompatible options).

Zenst 8y ago

Please do remember, polls prior to the referendum got it wrong then, probably still will as well. I have found betting odd's to be far superior insight than public opinioin polls and with that, ring up a betting shop and ask them what odds they will give that the UK stays as an EU member, that should give you a fair perspective as unlike polls, any mistake they make costs them money. But for me and many others, polls are futile and so often very very wrong as Brexit and Trump have demonstrated.

jonplackett 8y ago
You could have got 8 to 1 on the eve of brexit putting a bet on leave - and that was AFTER they called sunderland which was way more brexity than expect. Still kick myself for not taking that bet. It was similar for Trump too!