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> The consensus in the field is that there's somewhere between a thousand and a million technologically advanced civilizations just in our own galaxy. Wait, wh

by pluies 16y ago

> The consensus in the field is that there's somewhere between a thousand and a million technologically advanced civilizations just in our own galaxy. Wait, what? Admittedly I am no expert on the subject, but I'm pretty sure there is absolutely no consensus in the number —or even the mere existence— of other advanced civilizations at all. Is there?

hugh3 16y ago
Nope. As Kurzweil so often does, he's making up whatever crap suits him. I am, however, willing to go out on a limb and say there's somewhere between one and a trillion technologically advanced civilizations in our own galaxy.
anthonyb 16y ago
There are between 100 billion and 400 billion stars in our galaxy, which puts the odds of life developing at between 1 in 400 million and 1 in 100,000. That doesn't seem wildly out to me - particularly now that we're finding more and more extrasolar planets. Would you prefer odds of 1 in a trillion? or 1 in 1000?
- ced 16y ago
  The point is that there's incredible uncertainty about "What are the odds that life would develop on an earth-like planet?" and (to a lesser extent) "How many earth-like planets are there?" This problem was "solved" by Drake's equation. http://xkcd.com/384/ http://xkcd.com/384/ I also feel that a "concensus" is unlikely. But IANAAP.
- Avshalom 16y ago
  Implicit in that assumption is that life occurs at least once per galaxy. All we can really say is that it has happened once in the universe which makes the odds 1 in 10^21 to 1 in 10^24. Even then, just because life happened doesn't mean the odds are at all related to life/# of stars. The odds of life occurring could be 1 in 10^10^10^10 who knows. It's very difficult to figure out the probability of an event if the only information you have is that it happened. Which isn't to say I think we're alone in the universe I personally assume higher life is out there, but that doesn't make ridiculous statistical optimism less ridiculous.
  - Avshalom 16y ago
    You know actually this is bugging me. # of life/# stars is fucking awful math. It's the equivalent of shuffling a deck of cards dealing them all out and concluding, that because there are 100 billion decks of cards in the world, that the odds of getting that particular ordering is 1 in 10^11. It's not, its 1 in 8x10^67. All it takes is TWO decks of cards before the probability of a given ordering is less than 1/(# of atoms in the universe)... squared even. Saying the chances of life forming in the galaxy is AT WORST 1 in a trillion just because, hey we exist right? is straight up fucking wrong.
  - anthonyb 16y ago
    Saying that the chances are 1 in a 100,000 doesn't imply that life happens once per 100,000 stars, just that that's what'll happen on average. You can roll a dice 20 times and not have a six come up. But yes, it's difficult to figure out the probability of life occuring if we only have a sample size of one. On the other hand, nobody's found anything particularly special about the Earth's placement or chemical makeup, other than it's rocky and has liquid water. This is why exploring the other planets in our solar system is important. If we explore Titan and find weird, hydrocarbon-based fish which evolved independently to life on earth, or under the ice on Europa, then it tells us that the probability of life evolving is not that small, and we can up the estimate of the probability of other civilisations in the galaxy.
Avshalom 16y ago
Nah the consensus is that there is at least 1 civilisation in the universe. Any number higher is complete speculation.

by pluies 16y ago

hugh3 16y ago

Nope. As Kurzweil so often does, he's making up whatever crap suits him. I am, however, willing to go out on a limb and say there's somewhere between one and a trillion technologically advanced civilizations in our own galaxy.

anthonyb 16y ago

There are between 100 billion and 400 billion stars in our galaxy, which puts the odds of life developing at between 1 in 400 million and 1 in 100,000. That doesn't seem wildly out to me - particularly now that we're finding more and more extrasolar planets. Would you prefer odds of 1 in a trillion? or 1 in 1000?

ced 16y ago
The point is that there's incredible uncertainty about "What are the odds that life would develop on an earth-like planet?" and (to a lesser extent) "How many earth-like planets are there?" This problem was "solved" by Drake's equation. http://xkcd.com/384/ http://xkcd.com/384/ I also feel that a "concensus" is unlikely. But IANAAP.
Avshalom 16y ago
Implicit in that assumption is that life occurs at least once per galaxy. All we can really say is that it has happened once in the universe which makes the odds 1 in 10^21 to 1 in 10^24. Even then, just because life happened doesn't mean the odds are at all related to life/# of stars. The odds of life occurring could be 1 in 10^10^10^10 who knows. It's very difficult to figure out the probability of an event if the only information you have is that it happened. Which isn't to say I think we're alone in the universe I personally assume higher life is out there, but that doesn't make ridiculous statistical optimism less ridiculous.
- Avshalom 16y ago
  You know actually this is bugging me. # of life/# stars is fucking awful math. It's the equivalent of shuffling a deck of cards dealing them all out and concluding, that because there are 100 billion decks of cards in the world, that the odds of getting that particular ordering is 1 in 10^11. It's not, its 1 in 8x10^67. All it takes is TWO decks of cards before the probability of a given ordering is less than 1/(# of atoms in the universe)... squared even. Saying the chances of life forming in the galaxy is AT WORST 1 in a trillion just because, hey we exist right? is straight up fucking wrong.
- anthonyb 16y ago
  Saying that the chances are 1 in a 100,000 doesn't imply that life happens once per 100,000 stars, just that that's what'll happen on average. You can roll a dice 20 times and not have a six come up. But yes, it's difficult to figure out the probability of life occuring if we only have a sample size of one. On the other hand, nobody's found anything particularly special about the Earth's placement or chemical makeup, other than it's rocky and has liquid water. This is why exploring the other planets in our solar system is important. If we explore Titan and find weird, hydrocarbon-based fish which evolved independently to life on earth, or under the ice on Europa, then it tells us that the probability of life evolving is not that small, and we can up the estimate of the probability of other civilisations in the galaxy.

Avshalom 16y ago

Nah the consensus is that there is at least 1 civilisation in the universe. Any number higher is complete speculation.