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I think a careful interpretation shows how far that is. A self-driving system ought not be considered reliable until it can drive O(100 million miles) without d
by tbabb 8y ago
I think a careful interpretation shows how far that is. A self-driving system ought not be considered reliable until it can drive O(100 million miles) without disconnecting once, in order to match human reliability (that's about the distance between fatal accidents currently). A guaranteed disconnect within 25 miles is many zeros of missing reliability.
A Disney park engineer once relayed to me the philosophy for designing safe attractions in the parks: "If there's a one in a million chance of it happening, it'll happen multiple times per year," given attendance numbers which are in the millions.
A self-driving car needs to handle ordinary commute circumstances with 100.0% reliability, and one-in-a-million circumstances (which statistically you will have never personally encountered) with reliability literally above 99%.
- goshx 8y agoSure, and we are not there yet and nobody has claimed that we are.
- eric-hu 8y agoThis is the comment thread beginning with "Musk claims 2020 for sleep while the car drives". I think the point of this discussion is that Musk, has been implying that.
- goshx 8y agoI’m pretty sure it is still 2019.
- tbabb 8y agoAnd you're expecting reliability to improve by a factor of ten million before 2020?
- goshx 8y agoI am expecting significant improvements as more and more vehicles start providing data for the entire system to learn and I don’t care at all if it takes longer than that. I don’t want the technology to fail just because Musk is overly optimistic.
- ec109685 8y agoOn the flip side, with a million cars on the road, that is a lot of edge cases they see before they remove the steering wheel of their cars.
- tim333 8y agoI don't know many humans that drive 100 million miles without disconnecting. The disconnect thing is more analogous to pulling over to check the map for which 5000 miles might be ok.
- darkpuma 8y agoIf the computer needs to pull over and check itself into a motel and nap for a few hours, I'm not going to object. But right now the computer "takes a break" by simply disengaging in the middle of the road. Presumably when this happens, the computer isn't even confident in it's ability to safely park the car on the shoulder, as a human driver would attempt in the event of an emergency (blown tire) or undrivable conditions (which for a human might be an intense blizzard or torrential downpour.)