12 ms·
> Raising threshold will not just reduce probability of false positive result, but also will raise probability of false negative. And this article emphasises t
by pryce 8y ago
> Raising threshold will not just reduce probability of false positive result, but also will raise probability of false negative.
And this article emphasises that huge numbers of scientists and their audiences cannot correctly interpret negatives (false or otherwise).
The negative means: "Our data does not appear to show any correlation that met the criteria we chose to determine statistical significance"
This negative is frequently misinterpreted as: “We have shown with acceptable confidence that there is no correlation". (which does not inherently follow).
Therefore, adjusting the common p value threshold to P<0.01 while not correcting this widely-held cognitive error could (potentially) even worsen the problem, because people will encounter proportionally even more of the 'negative' results that they are already well-established as poor interpreters of.