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Well your "pragmatism bar" is higher that all future science. It isnt a trivial sceptical point. Does CO2 cause climate change, or climate change cause C02, o
by mjburgess 8y ago
Well your "pragmatism bar" is higher that all future science.
It isnt a trivial sceptical point.
Does CO2 cause climate change, or climate change cause C02, or are they both caused by a hidden factor (one of many) or do they co-vary accidentally (ie., no joint cause)?
No "statistical significance" of any kind can decide between them, yet this is how it is used. There is no way to do so with statistics; it requires repeated experimentation and refutation of all plausible causal models until the one remains stands as "the most plausible".
"Statistics" is being used in place of the scientific method which it cannot replace. Covariation is not causation: the covarying of any number of variables is consistent with any number of causal models. No "test" decides.
- whatshisface 8y agoThe evidence for anthropogenic climate change involves a lot more than correlation, so maybe that isn't the best example. In any case, even if everyone on Earth is misinterpreting p-values, that's not a problem with p-values.
- mch82 8y agoThe point of statistics isn’t to attain absolute certainty or for the statistical test to make a decision. The point is for people to make a decision using probability as one available decision aid, and then deciding whether to place a bet.