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I don't know if it reads back to you the way I read it, but your descriptions sound like anyone less than a business superstar is a failure. They are either am

I don't know if it reads back to you the way I read it, but your descriptions sound like anyone less than a business superstar is a failure. They are either amazing or shitty with no in-between, which is not the case in the real world. It seems like your ideal leans more towards working with people who by your descriptions sound like they could just as easily hire you as partner with you. Obviously you know your stuff and have been in the tech game a long time & have likely seen/dealt with some ridiculous shit. Conversely I've had a few crazy run-ins on the other side, including having a coder extraordinaire bailing halfway through a paid gig taking much of the code with him (lesson learned). The trick is to not let that prejudice one's views, which is often not so easy. So I think perhaps I should clarify on my friend example using one friend in particular. This fellow made 6 figures for many years, opened restaurants, tanning salons, real estate ventures... things that are not technology based. He built himself up from nothing and eventually transitioned to an attempt in an industry which was new to him. He did well there too even though none of those years of experience, contacts or sales & networking applied to the new industry. He just had drive to make it work. Regarding your VC comment, this same friend's story applies to that as well. He entered this new industry and within months had developed a network of investors by sheer determination and perseverance. So I guess the question to you is would you discount someone who is passionate and works their ass off just because he doesn't have the network or background specifically in the tech field? Some people are ready to "hit the ground running" as you say, even if it isn't in their area of strength. I've found these types are usually great to work with and are go-getters in any field, and if the project is their baby, they work even harder. So back to the beginning of this whole conversation. We all start somewhere, we all make connections from reaching out, so why do you find replying to non-technical business folk to be an exercise in "hand holding wanna-be entrepreneurs who can't contribute"? Sure it may go nowhere, but maybe it could lead to a great venture, you never know.

justin_vanw 16y ago
Obviously everyone starts somewhere. At some point Steve Jobs was just a dude hocking do it yourself circuit boards out of a garage, after all. If you know the person, and you know they have what it takes and you believe in them, then I would say go for it. However, if you take the group of all people with 'a great idea', the percentage who actually have any chance at all is so low that it is not worth the time to listen to them. Simply put, if the expected value of listening to someone's idea (whom you have no other information about) is X, the cost in time and attention just to listen to them is some large multiple of X. I obviously believe that the multiple of X is so great that it is not only optimal to not bother to hear what they are saying, but it is actually profitable to actively discourage them. Now, if you have more information about the person, such as your friend, then the prior probability that they will not be wasting your time goes way, way up. It is always worthwhile to take the time to hear out someone you have reason to believe is amazing. The other things I listed in the 'toolkit' were things that make that prior probability high enough that it is worth actively considering dropping what up to now has been your best bet (that is, what you've been working on for months probably) and jumping to whatever they've got cooking. It still probably won't be worth it, but at least there is a good enough chance they aren't just blowing smoke. It's really not complicated. If someone is just starting out, they should partner up with other people who are just starting out. It's only fair, they can jump into it together and take the same risks with each other. If they wan't other people to give up something great, either what they have going now or in lost wages, they have to provide a good enough track record that the expected payout of working with them is not only higher than the alternative, but also high enough that it makes it worth the additional risk.

justin_vanw 16y ago

Obviously everyone starts somewhere. At some point Steve Jobs was just a dude hocking do it yourself circuit boards out of a garage, after all. If you know the person, and you know they have what it takes and you believe in them, then I would say go for it. However, if you take the group of all people with 'a great idea', the percentage who actually have any chance at all is so low that it is not worth the time to listen to them. Simply put, if the expected value of listening to someone's idea (whom you have no other information about) is X, the cost in time and attention just to listen to them is some large multiple of X. I obviously believe that the multiple of X is so great that it is not only optimal to not bother to hear what they are saying, but it is actually profitable to actively discourage them. Now, if you have more information about the person, such as your friend, then the prior probability that they will not be wasting your time goes way, way up. It is always worthwhile to take the time to hear out someone you have reason to believe is amazing. The other things I listed in the 'toolkit' were things that make that prior probability high enough that it is worth actively considering dropping what up to now has been your best bet (that is, what you've been working on for months probably) and jumping to whatever they've got cooking. It still probably won't be worth it, but at least there is a good enough chance they aren't just blowing smoke. It's really not complicated. If someone is just starting out, they should partner up with other people who are just starting out. It's only fair, they can jump into it together and take the same risks with each other. If they wan't other people to give up something great, either what they have going now or in lost wages, they have to provide a good enough track record that the expected payout of working with them is not only higher than the alternative, but also high enough that it makes it worth the additional risk.