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I think the bigger concern for China in regards to this is slowing the pull on their fx reserves in light of their overall demand [0]. Indonesia and Malaysia a

I think the bigger concern for China in regards to this is slowing the pull on their fx reserves in light of their overall demand [0]. Indonesia and Malaysia are taking the biodiesel approach with decent amount of success at cutting their fx spend [1]. Why China cant pursue something similar to Indonesia and Malaysia probably has to do with their Ag policies/capabilities/climate. [0] https://ycharts.com/indicators/china_oil_consumption https://ycharts.com/indicators/china_oil_consumption [1] https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Nikkei-Markets/Malaysia-plans-to-start-using-B-10-biodiesel-from-Dec.-1 https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Nikkei-Markets/Mala...

est 8y ago
> Why China cant pursue something similar China plans to push 100% ethanol fuel at the end of 2020.
- cinquemb 8y ago
  Source? I see that they had a goal of 10% by volume[0], I'd really like to see the numbers behind how they'll get that, compared to where there are at now on that. I have my doubts on that number or on any serious execution, sounds dead on arrival: "By 2020 China wants all gasoline sold in the country to contain 10% ethanol by volume, which is what the United States currently mandates with its Renewable Fuel Standard. Building an ethanol industry is a necessary first step to building the Chinese bioeconomy, but there's a long way to go. China currently produces about 800 million gallons per year (mgpy) of ethanol, with about 500 mgpy derived from corn. Based on expected gasoline demand of 45 billion to 50 billion gallons, to meet the 10% ethanol blending rules in 2020, the country would need between 4 billion and 5 billion gallons of ethanol per year. It will be nearly impossible to site, build, and ramp up enough new production capacity to supply demand from domestic production alone by 2020. That's why many industry experts expect the Chinese government to turn to ethanol imports to fill the gap -- and only the American market has enough spare capacity to cash in on the opportunity."[1] [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/12/china-plans-nationwide-use-of-ethanol-gasoline-by-2020-state-media-says.html https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/12/china-plans-nationwide-use-o... [1] https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/05/07/china-is-unlikely-to-meet-its-2020-renewable-fuels.aspx https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/05/07/china-is-unlikely-...

est 8y ago

> Why China cant pursue something similar China plans to push 100% ethanol fuel at the end of 2020.

cinquemb 8y ago
Source? I see that they had a goal of 10% by volume[0], I'd really like to see the numbers behind how they'll get that, compared to where there are at now on that. I have my doubts on that number or on any serious execution, sounds dead on arrival: "By 2020 China wants all gasoline sold in the country to contain 10% ethanol by volume, which is what the United States currently mandates with its Renewable Fuel Standard. Building an ethanol industry is a necessary first step to building the Chinese bioeconomy, but there's a long way to go. China currently produces about 800 million gallons per year (mgpy) of ethanol, with about 500 mgpy derived from corn. Based on expected gasoline demand of 45 billion to 50 billion gallons, to meet the 10% ethanol blending rules in 2020, the country would need between 4 billion and 5 billion gallons of ethanol per year. It will be nearly impossible to site, build, and ramp up enough new production capacity to supply demand from domestic production alone by 2020. That's why many industry experts expect the Chinese government to turn to ethanol imports to fill the gap -- and only the American market has enough spare capacity to cash in on the opportunity."[1] [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/12/china-plans-nationwide-use-of-ethanol-gasoline-by-2020-state-media-says.html https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/12/china-plans-nationwide-use-o... [1] https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/05/07/china-is-unlikely-to-meet-its-2020-renewable-fuels.aspx https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/05/07/china-is-unlikely-...