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I’m assuming that you didn’t read the section of the essay where I summarise Shanteau, Kahneman and Klein’s findings? Complexity of systems is one aspect, certa

I’m assuming that you didn’t read the section of the essay where I summarise Shanteau, Kahneman and Klein’s findings? Complexity of systems is one aspect, certainly, but valid and regular causal inferences are by far the dominating factor. Doctors, nurses, and auditors appear on both sides because they belong to fractionated fields of expertise. I have included a definition of ‘fractionated’ (their terminology, not mine) in the essay. (Also, Marlie Chunger is a fictitious character invented to illustrate some of the ideas in the series.)

sah2ed 8y ago
> I’m assuming that you didn’t read the section of the essay where I summarise Shanteau, Kahneman and Klein’s findings? I did read your summary in the section titled A Personal Take, unless there is another summary? Link? (I’m wondering if your blogging tool allows a way to jump directly to sub-sections using anchor-links. This would be a time-saver for long-form essays.)
- shadowsun7 8y ago
  Ahh, my apologies then. Yes, that’s the summary. You’re not the first person to point this out to me, but it turned out that the other reader stopped at ‘A Personal Take’ — which was what I thought happened here! (I was going to look at the essay again and ask myself if I made a mistake, since everyone seems to stop at that heading. It also meant my structure was badly chosen. And then I saw your reply!) Then, to address your idea more directly: I can see where you are coming from, but I think Klein and Kahneman’s definition of ‘has reliable causal cues’ + ‘provides opportunities to learn those cues’ are better filters. Klein studies some incredibly high performing individuals — experts who are able to perform well even in very complex environments. So it’s not always true that complexity of environment determines existence of expertise.

sah2ed 8y ago

> I’m assuming that you didn’t read the section of the essay where I summarise Shanteau, Kahneman and Klein’s findings? I did read your summary in the section titled A Personal Take, unless there is another summary? Link? (I’m wondering if your blogging tool allows a way to jump directly to sub-sections using anchor-links. This would be a time-saver for long-form essays.)

shadowsun7 8y ago
Ahh, my apologies then. Yes, that’s the summary. You’re not the first person to point this out to me, but it turned out that the other reader stopped at ‘A Personal Take’ — which was what I thought happened here! (I was going to look at the essay again and ask myself if I made a mistake, since everyone seems to stop at that heading. It also meant my structure was badly chosen. And then I saw your reply!) Then, to address your idea more directly: I can see where you are coming from, but I think Klein and Kahneman’s definition of ‘has reliable causal cues’ + ‘provides opportunities to learn those cues’ are better filters. Klein studies some incredibly high performing individuals — experts who are able to perform well even in very complex environments. So it’s not always true that complexity of environment determines existence of expertise.