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Wildly speculative. Turkey is predicted to have 9.1 [some unit], while Germany 6.8 [some unit]. There are two countries with similar demographic profiles, with
by pacala 8y ago
Wildly speculative. Turkey is predicted to have 9.1 [some unit], while Germany 6.8 [some unit]. There are two countries with similar demographic profiles, with Germany having 5x the [nominal] GDP of Turkey today. Short of nuclear war or an asteroid landing in Ruhrgebiet, it's hard to imagine what would lead to Turkey's economy overtaking Germany's in 11 years.
PS. "nominal GDP using purchasing power parity exchange rates" is nonsense. Not sure if the error lies with the journalist or with the source.
- bdod6 8y agoA lot of that speculative growth comes from Turkey's comparatively younger population (hence more productive hours worked each day), and their continued population growth. Germany's demographics are sliding the other way, with an aging and stagnating population.
- pacala 8y agoEverything you said applies today to the demographic pyramids of the respective 2 countries, with only an 11 years delta. And yet Germany has 5x the GDP. https://www.populationpyramid.net/turkey/2019/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/turkey/2019/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/turkey/2030/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/turkey/2030/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2019/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2019/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2030/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2030/
- changchuming 8y agoGermany had 10x the GDP of Turkey twenty years ago. That just proves that Turkey has caught up a lot. Demographics take a long time to have an effect on GDP, they're just forecasting that the tipping point is 2030.