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I disagree with a few of the assumptions made here. > germans will never come out with cost-competitive electric cars 1. because they don't have a Giga factor

I disagree with a few of the assumptions made here. > germans will never come out with cost-competitive electric cars 1. because they don't have a Giga factory 2.because they would cannibalise their own petrol car demand 3. they want to push hybrids as the future but its never going to be cost effective as a pure electric tesla 4. china could level the playing field but due to large tariffs, it is unlikely they would make a significant impact in the next 5 years in US and EU. > tesla stands to make the most amount of money from its performance variants of the model 3 ( which is a cheaper porche in terms of performance). producing cheaper model 3 puts pressure on the balance sheet by unveiling the model y it reduces some of that pressure but keeps the company profitable for longer.

Brakenshire 8y ago
You’re not going to have to wait long, the first VW electric cars on the new modular platform are entering production by the end of the year, and scaled up at the start of next year. VW in fact has a regulatory requirement to reduce average fleet emissions which will force a massive scaling up of its electric production. And its board have already signed off on tens of billions of Euros of investment over the next five years to that end.
nikanj 8y ago
The German car industry has been doomed every other decade by various factors such as Japanese cars, American cars, the oil crisis, etc. I have full faith in their ability to overcome this one as well
- elisharobinson 8y ago
  I can't disagree with you on that, the German education and integration with industry is a well-oiled machine. my point is they have too many factors some even geopolitical to keep making ice cars and my personal opinion is we won't see real competition from German carmakers for another decade in the electric car space.
rebuilder 8y ago
I see it completely differently. The Germans in particular seem likely to get big into EVs. They have a traditionally strong auto industry that's having the message that fossil fuels are a thing of the past hammered into them on multiple fronts. Diesel has become a pariah, and VW in particular has paid dearly for making diesel cars. The EU regulatory environment is signalling quite strongly that they want to take petrol cars off the streets as well. What conclusion does that leave auto makers in Germany other than that they need to switch to EVs ASAP?
- elisharobinson 8y ago
  2 things here i just wanted to touch on. 1) no matter how big the existential threat policy makers will fold as quickly as a wet napkin if it means the direct loss of jobs. which i believe will happen if we move away from ice engines. 2) we have been here before its easier for companies to use cheat devices and pay a fine, than invest in new tooling or R&D for a new ICE technology or invest in a top down redesign for thier cars.
EwanToo 8y ago
They don't have a Giga factory today, but they've announced that they're taking end to end responsibility for batteries, so they'll end up with something similar
zapnuk 8y ago
A Model 3 costs 53000€ in Germany. A VW e-Golf with half the range of a model 3 starts at 35000€. VW (+Toyota and others) are late, but are investing billions to make electric cars available to the mass. Unless Tesla is able to cut the Model 3 price by about 50% they won't be of much relevance in the grand scheme. They will remain a luxury brand similar to Apple in the customer electronics market. However, they won't be as successful. Apple's products are still cheap enough that many low-income customers who realistically don't have the money to afford an iphone still buy one. I don't think this will happen with cars. For most people cars will always be a tool first and an accessory second.
- TheTruth1234 8y ago
  Apart from meeting publicly stated goals (e.g. the $35k Model 3), why would you even think twice about trying to compete with VW on price, when demand for your current products, at the current price, outstrips supply?
  - mprev 8y ago
    How about because your company's valuation demands that it become more than a niche player?
    - TheTruth1234 8y ago
      If you can't supply enough product to satisfy the demand at lower price levels, you keep the price high for the current demand. Especially if you're in Tesla's position where they're seeking economies of scale and efficiency over time. That is the path to becoming more than a niche player, in this case.
- felipelemos 8y ago
  > Unless Tesla is able to cut the Model 3 price by about 50% they won't be of much relevance in the grand scheme. They are already relevant. And the fact that they are pricer but still have demand shows that they are successful right now, and probably in the future.
- 8y ago
clouddrover 8y ago
> germans will never come out with cost-competitive electric cars Of course they will. All car companies need to produce electric cars to meet the fleet emissions standards set by the EU and China, and because countries are talking about banning the sale of new ICE vehicles in the future. So if they want to stay in the car business they need to produce battery electric cars, hydrogen fuel cell cars, or both. You can pre-order a Volkswagen ID hatchback from the 8th of May: https://www.autoblog.com/2019/03/13/volkswagen-id-hatchback-orders-europe/ https://www.autoblog.com/2019/03/13/volkswagen-id-hatchback-... Some other upcoming cost-competitive battery electrics from Volkswagen are the Skoda Vision iV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O72uf9DNakk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O72uf9DNakk And the SEAT el-Born: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umwlXFoSAD8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umwlXFoSAD8 Volkswagen isn't investing 80 billion euros in electric car production for the fun of it. They're in it to win it: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-electric-insight/bet-everything-on-electric-inside-volkswagens-radical-strategy-shift-idUSKCN1PV0K4 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-electric-insig... https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/12/business/volkswagen-electric-cars.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/12/business/volkswagen-elect...
- elisharobinson 8y ago
  i honestly cant go through all the links .. but i would just like a answer for these questions. > VW group made 240+B Euros revenue in 2018, how much of it do you think they would make from selling electric vehicles in the next 5 to 10 years. > How many trained/skilled people and R&D do you think is needed to make a car which is comparable to model3 in spec/performance/price from the ground up (not im not including sports cars because they can manage to sell few sports cars at a loss just to spite tesla). i would be surprised if the answer is anything less than 10 to 15 years.
  - clouddrover 8y ago
    > i honestly cant go through all the links Yes you can. Believe in yourself.

Brakenshire 8y ago

You’re not going to have to wait long, the first VW electric cars on the new modular platform are entering production by the end of the year, and scaled up at the start of next year. VW in fact has a regulatory requirement to reduce average fleet emissions which will force a massive scaling up of its electric production. And its board have already signed off on tens of billions of Euros of investment over the next five years to that end.

nikanj 8y ago

The German car industry has been doomed every other decade by various factors such as Japanese cars, American cars, the oil crisis, etc. I have full faith in their ability to overcome this one as well

elisharobinson 8y ago
I can't disagree with you on that, the German education and integration with industry is a well-oiled machine. my point is they have too many factors some even geopolitical to keep making ice cars and my personal opinion is we won't see real competition from German carmakers for another decade in the electric car space.

rebuilder 8y ago

I see it completely differently. The Germans in particular seem likely to get big into EVs. They have a traditionally strong auto industry that's having the message that fossil fuels are a thing of the past hammered into them on multiple fronts. Diesel has become a pariah, and VW in particular has paid dearly for making diesel cars. The EU regulatory environment is signalling quite strongly that they want to take petrol cars off the streets as well. What conclusion does that leave auto makers in Germany other than that they need to switch to EVs ASAP?

elisharobinson 8y ago
2 things here i just wanted to touch on. 1) no matter how big the existential threat policy makers will fold as quickly as a wet napkin if it means the direct loss of jobs. which i believe will happen if we move away from ice engines. 2) we have been here before its easier for companies to use cheat devices and pay a fine, than invest in new tooling or R&D for a new ICE technology or invest in a top down redesign for thier cars.

EwanToo 8y ago

They don't have a Giga factory today, but they've announced that they're taking end to end responsibility for batteries, so they'll end up with something similar

zapnuk 8y ago

A Model 3 costs 53000€ in Germany. A VW e-Golf with half the range of a model 3 starts at 35000€. VW (+Toyota and others) are late, but are investing billions to make electric cars available to the mass. Unless Tesla is able to cut the Model 3 price by about 50% they won't be of much relevance in the grand scheme. They will remain a luxury brand similar to Apple in the customer electronics market. However, they won't be as successful. Apple's products are still cheap enough that many low-income customers who realistically don't have the money to afford an iphone still buy one. I don't think this will happen with cars. For most people cars will always be a tool first and an accessory second.

TheTruth1234 8y ago
Apart from meeting publicly stated goals (e.g. the $35k Model 3), why would you even think twice about trying to compete with VW on price, when demand for your current products, at the current price, outstrips supply?
- mprev 8y ago
  How about because your company's valuation demands that it become more than a niche player?
  - TheTruth1234 8y ago
    If you can't supply enough product to satisfy the demand at lower price levels, you keep the price high for the current demand. Especially if you're in Tesla's position where they're seeking economies of scale and efficiency over time. That is the path to becoming more than a niche player, in this case.
felipelemos 8y ago
> Unless Tesla is able to cut the Model 3 price by about 50% they won't be of much relevance in the grand scheme. They are already relevant. And the fact that they are pricer but still have demand shows that they are successful right now, and probably in the future.
8y ago

clouddrover 8y ago

> germans will never come out with cost-competitive electric cars Of course they will. All car companies need to produce electric cars to meet the fleet emissions standards set by the EU and China, and because countries are talking about banning the sale of new ICE vehicles in the future. So if they want to stay in the car business they need to produce battery electric cars, hydrogen fuel cell cars, or both. You can pre-order a Volkswagen ID hatchback from the 8th of May: https://www.autoblog.com/2019/03/13/volkswagen-id-hatchback-orders-europe/ https://www.autoblog.com/2019/03/13/volkswagen-id-hatchback-... Some other upcoming cost-competitive battery electrics from Volkswagen are the Skoda Vision iV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O72uf9DNakk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O72uf9DNakk And the SEAT el-Born: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umwlXFoSAD8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umwlXFoSAD8 Volkswagen isn't investing 80 billion euros in electric car production for the fun of it. They're in it to win it: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-electric-insight/bet-everything-on-electric-inside-volkswagens-radical-strategy-shift-idUSKCN1PV0K4 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-electric-insig... https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/12/business/volkswagen-electric-cars.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/12/business/volkswagen-elect...

elisharobinson 8y ago
i honestly cant go through all the links .. but i would just like a answer for these questions. > VW group made 240+B Euros revenue in 2018, how much of it do you think they would make from selling electric vehicles in the next 5 to 10 years. > How many trained/skilled people and R&D do you think is needed to make a car which is comparable to model3 in spec/performance/price from the ground up (not im not including sports cars because they can manage to sell few sports cars at a loss just to spite tesla). i would be surprised if the answer is anything less than 10 to 15 years.
- clouddrover 8y ago
  > i honestly cant go through all the links Yes you can. Believe in yourself.