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I have noticed “safety fade” can happen in projects and organisations. In particular when you are doing something for the first time, uncertainty creates a spa

I have noticed “safety fade” can happen in projects and organisations. In particular when you are doing something for the first time, uncertainty creates a space for a safety culture to operate. Design, process and safety emphasis lead to operational success. Over time the original designers and engineers leave, new staff join. Field experience shows that most of the safety problems that were anticipated in design never happen. The organisation starts to become complacent. All the safety features and procedures start to be considered, psychologically, as a “safety margin” or a kind of budget that can now be spent by taking more risks. Triple or quadruple redundancy just starts looking like extra weight. Within the org, pressures to lower costs and deliver faster start to win out...

mannykannot 8y ago
You have independently discovered a phenomenon that is known as the normalization of deviance. It has been seen in many engineering failures, such as both Space Shuttle crashes, the Deepwater Horizon explosion, etc. https://flightsafety.org/asw-article/normalization-of-deviance/ https://flightsafety.org/asw-article/normalization-of-devian...
walterbell 8y ago
> Over time the original designers and engineers leave, new staff join. Field experience shows that most of the safety problems that were anticipated in design never happen. The organisation starts to become complacent. This lifecycle pattern can be found at other organizational scales, including countries, e.g. soldier -> law -> artist -> merchant -> warlord -> soldier ..
- knowledgepowers 8y ago
  Where does this soldier -> lawyer etc formulation come from? Interesting idea!
  - walterbell 8y ago
    Inspired by this John Adams quote from 1780, which covers the first three phases, https://www.masshist.org/digitaladams/archive/doc?id=L17800512jasecond https://www.masshist.org/digitaladams/archive/doc?id=L178005... > I must study Politicks and War that my sons may have liberty to study Mathematicks and Philosophy. My sons ought to study Mathematicks and Philosophy, Geography, natural History, Naval Architecture, navigation, Commerce and Agriculture, in order to give their Children a right to study Painting, Poetry, Musick, Architecture, Statuary, Tapestry and Porcelaine.

mannykannot 8y ago

You have independently discovered a phenomenon that is known as the normalization of deviance. It has been seen in many engineering failures, such as both Space Shuttle crashes, the Deepwater Horizon explosion, etc. https://flightsafety.org/asw-article/normalization-of-deviance/ https://flightsafety.org/asw-article/normalization-of-devian...

walterbell 8y ago

> Over time the original designers and engineers leave, new staff join. Field experience shows that most of the safety problems that were anticipated in design never happen. The organisation starts to become complacent. This lifecycle pattern can be found at other organizational scales, including countries, e.g. soldier -> law -> artist -> merchant -> warlord -> soldier ..

knowledgepowers 8y ago
Where does this soldier -> lawyer etc formulation come from? Interesting idea!
- walterbell 8y ago
  Inspired by this John Adams quote from 1780, which covers the first three phases, https://www.masshist.org/digitaladams/archive/doc?id=L17800512jasecond https://www.masshist.org/digitaladams/archive/doc?id=L178005... > I must study Politicks and War that my sons may have liberty to study Mathematicks and Philosophy. My sons ought to study Mathematicks and Philosophy, Geography, natural History, Naval Architecture, navigation, Commerce and Agriculture, in order to give their Children a right to study Painting, Poetry, Musick, Architecture, Statuary, Tapestry and Porcelaine.