I'm not really sure how else to see it. It's pretty straightforward to show that the simplest possible model is some kind of probability density function with i

I'm not really sure how else to see it. It's pretty straightforward to show that the simplest possible model is some kind of probability density function with inputs of skill and privilege and a wide distribution and a very long tail due to cumulative effects. Not having various skills will obviously preclude certain outcomes (probably can't buy 86-DOS and produce PC-DOS if you couldn't understand the technology), not having certain privileges will preclude others (can't sell PC-DOS if you aren't in a position to meet with anyone to try) and some outcomes beget further possibilities (unlikely to have grown Microsoft and produced Windows if you hadn't have sold PC-DOS). Luck being the realization of such a probabilistic model into finite outcomes. Anyone attempting to reduce it further than that is selling (or got sold) some very dangerous and irresponsible ideas.