It's reasonable (at least in the US and most other developed countries). Economic output is the product of the number of workers and their productivity. The US

It's reasonable (at least in the US and most other developed countries). Economic output is the product of the number of workers and their productivity. The US population is aging (so Baby Boomers are retiring) and its fertility is low relative to previous generations (though higher than other developed countries). This means there US won't get the GDP tailwind from population growth that it used to. The other place to look is productivity. This is, in large part, a function of technology innovation (and adoption) though there are over ways to make the workforce more efficient as well. Productivity growth has been below historical norms since 2008 and nobody really knows why. Whether this is a anomaly or a trend is an open question, and makes up most the game of predicting long-term economic growth. Personally, I suspect overall technological progress follows an S-curve and will slow at some point. I can't claim to know where we are on the S-curve, but I'm skeptical that Big Data and AI will lead to the same productivity gains as computers, electricity, etc (I'm an ML engineer fwiw). I wouldn't be surprised if US growth stays is low relative to historical standards for the foreseeable future.