It is hard, if not impossible, to say. What I think one could say is that these things doesn't generally happen in the way people think. Since there is generall

It is hard, if not impossible, to say. What I think one could say is that these things doesn't generally happen in the way people think. Since there is generally a lot of inertia that prevents people from seeing what is going on. People expects shifts, but it is usually more similar to leaving things on the table. Because this is hard to figure out, it is therefor instead more important to you make these decisions for good reasons. And that what I think is the real problem for the Bay Area (and other regions in a similar position). That you end up losing a lot of potential for no good reason.