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To you an employee it makes no sense. To an investor it does. Human history is filled with stories of seeking cheaper labor. Have you not been following the

To you an employee it makes no sense. To an investor it does. Human history is filled with stories of seeking cheaper labor. Have you not been following the anxiety over offshoring? Why did all that manufacturing go to China? Cities in America used to be the centers of manufacturing and then it moved to rural areas. If you research it you might find like I did that cost of living was cheaper in rural areas. And a lot of businesses decided moving to and building a new factory in a rural area, which happens infrequently, and hiring more people who worked for less was cheaper over the long run. SF is one data point, but folks who were already priced out there are in Seattle and Portland, etc., pricing out others who have to go somewhere. Maybe the first generation of workers will make bank due to lack of capable workers, but others will join the trend of moving, rural populations of folks capable of this work will grow and work for less. I don’t have concrete numbers around how soon or how many people will move, because I can’t predict the future, but the general pattern has happened over and over in just 150 yrs. And the parallels to ancient empires conquering a new land and enslaving the people to grow the wealth of the king or whatever mean the idea goes back further. It only got wrapped in our contemporary language of economics in the last 150-200 years.

malvosenior 8y ago
Manufacturing and software development are very different though. Any able bodied person can work in a factory. If we're being generous I'd say at most 10% of the population is even capable of writing software. The demand for these people is only going to increase. As we have seen with rising developer salaries, the scarcity of the skill allows some leverage to the employee that other fields lack. Software development is also unique in that it's one of the few roles that works really well remotely. I'd say most developers are even more productive remote than in the office due to the need to sustain mental focus in a way that's difficult with a lot of distractions.
- butstillbad99 8y ago
  Don’t get me wrong; I would expect salaries for remote programmers in rural areas to be higher than typical for the area. But the future is not going to be something like hundreds of thousands a year in a town where average of cost of living is like $30-$40k. It’s quite possible I am being too cynical. But people spend all day carefully measuring what we should make to insure the balance isn’t too tilted in our favor. I doubt they’re going to miss what seems like an obvious reality to me.
  - nostrademons 8y ago
    You're right over the long-term, but all market advantages disappear over the long-term. The fact that in 50 years software development will be a commodity skill that anybody can do from anywhere does nothing to ease a labor shortage today. And the remote worker who can competently ship software on demand doesn't care that his kids won't be able to do the same; he can make bank now and use the excess to set them up for the careers that'll be in high demand tomorrow.

malvosenior 8y ago

Manufacturing and software development are very different though. Any able bodied person can work in a factory. If we're being generous I'd say at most 10% of the population is even capable of writing software. The demand for these people is only going to increase. As we have seen with rising developer salaries, the scarcity of the skill allows some leverage to the employee that other fields lack. Software development is also unique in that it's one of the few roles that works really well remotely. I'd say most developers are even more productive remote than in the office due to the need to sustain mental focus in a way that's difficult with a lot of distractions.

butstillbad99 8y ago
Don’t get me wrong; I would expect salaries for remote programmers in rural areas to be higher than typical for the area. But the future is not going to be something like hundreds of thousands a year in a town where average of cost of living is like $30-$40k. It’s quite possible I am being too cynical. But people spend all day carefully measuring what we should make to insure the balance isn’t too tilted in our favor. I doubt they’re going to miss what seems like an obvious reality to me.
- nostrademons 8y ago
  You're right over the long-term, but all market advantages disappear over the long-term. The fact that in 50 years software development will be a commodity skill that anybody can do from anywhere does nothing to ease a labor shortage today. And the remote worker who can competently ship software on demand doesn't care that his kids won't be able to do the same; he can make bank now and use the excess to set them up for the careers that'll be in high demand tomorrow.