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> It's not enough to say you're dominant in a niche, albeit a growing one. When you're facing technology transitions, looking at it as a niche is exactly the w

> It's not enough to say you're dominant in a niche, albeit a growing one. When you're facing technology transitions, looking at it as a niche is exactly the wrong perspective. Tesla is dominant in a field which is the future of automotive transportation. It is a small market not because it is a niche but because it is nascent. The difference is, strategically, very relevant. ICE automakers are just realizing how far behind Tesla they are. I'd wager at least ten years. The model S was launched in 2012, VW et al won't be able to launch a similar offer before 2022.

clouddrover 8y ago
> VW et al won't be able to launch a similar offer before 2022. Volkswagen will launch multiple models across multiple brands before 2022. The Porsche Taycan is launching before 2022: https://www.engadget.com/2019/03/09/porche-taycan-ev-20-000-reservations/ https://www.engadget.com/2019/03/09/porche-taycan-ev-20-000-... https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/hybrid-electric/a21239621/porsche-taycan-mission-e-electric/ https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/hybrid-electric/a21239... And the VW ID Neo: https://electrek.co/2019/03/13/vw-id-electric-hatchback-pre-orders-open-may-8-production-september/ https://electrek.co/2019/03/13/vw-id-electric-hatchback-pre-... And the VW ID Crozz: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8zbuvzEA5A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8zbuvzEA5A And the Audi e-tron Q4: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/audi-q4-e-tron-concept-geneva-motor-show/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/audi-q4-e-tron-concept-ge... And the Audi e-tron GT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsXhl3ilU9I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsXhl3ilU9I And the Skoda Vision IV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O72uf9DNakk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O72uf9DNakk And the SEAT el-Born: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umwlXFoSAD8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umwlXFoSAD8
- sergiosgc 8y ago
  > There will be many models launched before 2022. And there have been many models launched before today. None are even close to model S levels of production volume, performance, range and battery durability. If your reference is the Porsche Taycan, it is the equivalent to the Tesla Roadster: a low volume proof of concept. It is already more than ten years late (the Roadster launched in '08). If your reference is anything based on VW's MEB (VW, Audi, Seat, Skoda), add two years to publicized launch dates, as the MEB went back to the drawing board, deemed under-specced for what the market expects from EVs. This means production plants have not yet started to get designed, much less built, and are waiting on platform redesign and approval.
  - clouddrover 8y ago
    You really should read and view the links. Both the Porsche Taycan and the Audi e-tron GT are in the Model S's category, and they're both much nicer cars. The Porsche Taycan will charge faster than any Tesla and won't suffer the Model S's overheating issues: http://www.thedrive.com/news/5207/this-video-reminds-us-that-the-tesla-model-s-is-an-awful-track-car http://www.thedrive.com/news/5207/this-video-reminds-us-that...
    - rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
      >The Porsche Taycan will charge faster than any Tesla Where?
      - clouddrover 8y ago
        At every 350 kW charger: https://insideevs.com/first-ionity-350-kw-chargers-denmark/ https://insideevs.com/first-ionity-350-kw-chargers-denmark/ When will Tesla introduce 350 kW charging?
    - labcomputer 8y ago
      I think you mean: you speculate that the GT and Taycan will be in same category as the Model S and will be nicer than the roadster. Since literally nobody outside of VAG has sat in one. You may also want to walk back the claims about overheating. In one of the press videos, a Porsche engineer explicitly says that the number of hard accelerations over a short time will be limited to 10, or so.
      - clouddrover 8y ago
        > Since literally nobody outside of VAG has sat in one. Here's a person sitting in one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvNw15W_EK8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvNw15W_EK8 Here's another person sitting in one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMEdiq2xTbQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMEdiq2xTbQ And yet another person sitting in one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2i8uS_q6kE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2i8uS_q6kE And another: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZFcjJ-PCbs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZFcjJ-PCbs Is that literal enough?
- rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
  I'm all for more EVs, but anyone who's followed the EV space for the past decade knows that most of these models are DOA. Take the Audi e-tron for instance: the director of the Paris showroom (the only place in Europe where the car was displayed in public) himself told me late last year that they don't intend to sell the car in volume, that it can't compete with the competition, and that EV sales are mostly PR for a company like Audi (at least until ICE don't make most of the company's profits). NB: this is not a regular dealership, but a fully owned and controlled store by Audi. Good luck with that!
  - clouddrover 8y ago
    Meanwhile, Porsche is making its most popular model electric only: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/porsche-macan-electric-only-official/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/porsche-macan-electric-on... You're not being realistic. Volkswagen will be the biggest producer of electric cars within 3 years.
    - lovemenot 8y ago
      >> Volkswagen will be the biggest producer of electric cars within 3 years. Not least due to their outsized presence in the world's most important market for EV - China

clouddrover 8y ago

> VW et al won't be able to launch a similar offer before 2022. Volkswagen will launch multiple models across multiple brands before 2022. The Porsche Taycan is launching before 2022: https://www.engadget.com/2019/03/09/porche-taycan-ev-20-000-reservations/ https://www.engadget.com/2019/03/09/porche-taycan-ev-20-000-... https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/hybrid-electric/a21239621/porsche-taycan-mission-e-electric/ https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/hybrid-electric/a21239... And the VW ID Neo: https://electrek.co/2019/03/13/vw-id-electric-hatchback-pre-orders-open-may-8-production-september/ https://electrek.co/2019/03/13/vw-id-electric-hatchback-pre-... And the VW ID Crozz: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8zbuvzEA5A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8zbuvzEA5A And the Audi e-tron Q4: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/audi-q4-e-tron-concept-geneva-motor-show/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/audi-q4-e-tron-concept-ge... And the Audi e-tron GT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsXhl3ilU9I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsXhl3ilU9I And the Skoda Vision IV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O72uf9DNakk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O72uf9DNakk And the SEAT el-Born: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umwlXFoSAD8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umwlXFoSAD8

sergiosgc 8y ago
> There will be many models launched before 2022. And there have been many models launched before today. None are even close to model S levels of production volume, performance, range and battery durability. If your reference is the Porsche Taycan, it is the equivalent to the Tesla Roadster: a low volume proof of concept. It is already more than ten years late (the Roadster launched in '08). If your reference is anything based on VW's MEB (VW, Audi, Seat, Skoda), add two years to publicized launch dates, as the MEB went back to the drawing board, deemed under-specced for what the market expects from EVs. This means production plants have not yet started to get designed, much less built, and are waiting on platform redesign and approval.
- clouddrover 8y ago
  You really should read and view the links. Both the Porsche Taycan and the Audi e-tron GT are in the Model S's category, and they're both much nicer cars. The Porsche Taycan will charge faster than any Tesla and won't suffer the Model S's overheating issues: http://www.thedrive.com/news/5207/this-video-reminds-us-that-the-tesla-model-s-is-an-awful-track-car http://www.thedrive.com/news/5207/this-video-reminds-us-that...
  - rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
    >The Porsche Taycan will charge faster than any Tesla Where?
    - clouddrover 8y ago
      At every 350 kW charger: https://insideevs.com/first-ionity-350-kw-chargers-denmark/ https://insideevs.com/first-ionity-350-kw-chargers-denmark/ When will Tesla introduce 350 kW charging?
  - labcomputer 8y ago
    I think you mean: you speculate that the GT and Taycan will be in same category as the Model S and will be nicer than the roadster. Since literally nobody outside of VAG has sat in one. You may also want to walk back the claims about overheating. In one of the press videos, a Porsche engineer explicitly says that the number of hard accelerations over a short time will be limited to 10, or so.
    - clouddrover 8y ago
      > Since literally nobody outside of VAG has sat in one. Here's a person sitting in one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvNw15W_EK8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvNw15W_EK8 Here's another person sitting in one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMEdiq2xTbQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMEdiq2xTbQ And yet another person sitting in one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2i8uS_q6kE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2i8uS_q6kE And another: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZFcjJ-PCbs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZFcjJ-PCbs Is that literal enough?
rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
I'm all for more EVs, but anyone who's followed the EV space for the past decade knows that most of these models are DOA. Take the Audi e-tron for instance: the director of the Paris showroom (the only place in Europe where the car was displayed in public) himself told me late last year that they don't intend to sell the car in volume, that it can't compete with the competition, and that EV sales are mostly PR for a company like Audi (at least until ICE don't make most of the company's profits). NB: this is not a regular dealership, but a fully owned and controlled store by Audi. Good luck with that!
- clouddrover 8y ago
  Meanwhile, Porsche is making its most popular model electric only: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/porsche-macan-electric-only-official/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/porsche-macan-electric-on... You're not being realistic. Volkswagen will be the biggest producer of electric cars within 3 years.
  - lovemenot 8y ago
    >> Volkswagen will be the biggest producer of electric cars within 3 years. Not least due to their outsized presence in the world's most important market for EV - China