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The statement I see on that page is "There is a 91% chance that Variation A has a higher conversion rate". I am not sure how to interpret that. We would have t
by no_gravity 8y ago
The statement I see on that page is "There is a 91% chance that Variation A has a higher conversion rate".
I am not sure how to interpret that. We would have to dive into the GitHub repo and figure out which test it performs I guess.
- bemmu 8y agoLooks like I misunderstood the result, I will change the post to reflect this.
- eutectic 8y agoYou get 91% if you put a uniform prior on the proportion coming from each alternative.
- popinman322 8y agoIt looks like the difference of two beta distributions based on the visualization. So, assuming a uniform prior and updating with 39/3000 and 28/3000 conversions the difference between the two distributions is greater than zero 91% of the time. It's only guaranteed to be above zero at about the 80% credible interval, and since we started with an uninformed prior that'd be about p=.2? I'm open to correction here.