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Humans aren't perfect but the rate of incident for human drivers is surprisingly low, it is well below 1% of all miles driven. Tesla wouldn't even remotely come
by computerex 8y ago
Humans aren't perfect but the rate of incident for human drivers is surprisingly low, it is well below 1% of all miles driven. Tesla wouldn't even remotely come close to achieving human level safety.
- ec109685 8y agoWhat do you base that on?
- computerex 8y agoBasic statistics http://www.driverless-future.com/?page_id=983 http://www.driverless-future.com/?page_id=983
- ec109685 8y agoHow in the world does that article say this: Tesla wouldn't even remotely come close to achieving human level safety A million Teslas on the road generate 10 billion miles a year.
- computerex 8y agoDid you even bother reading the article? Because the point is, as of right now, the number of human driven miles completely and utterly dwarfs the number of autonomous miles. That's why in order to compare the relative safeties, you'd need several orders of magnitudes of more sample data from the autonomous driving side. Please try to understand the underlying statistics, it's really not hard.
- ec109685 8y agoThat isn’t what the article says. It concludes with this: > In summary, this article shows that the idea that self-driving cars need to drive hundreds of millions of miles before we can be convinced that they are safe is full of flaws. It is misleading to just focus on fatality rates where many other correlated measures for reliability are available that are easier to measure. It is wrong to focus primarily on accidents; the focus should rather be placed on the avoidance of safety-critical situations.
- computerex 8y agoRead the first half of the page, it is what it says. It is countering claims like this one: > For those driving without Autopilot, we registered one accident or crash-like event for every 1.92 million miles driven. By comparison, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) most recent data shows that in the United States, there is an automobile crash every 492,000 miles. https://www.tesla.com/blog/q3-2018-vehicle-safety-report https://www.tesla.com/blog/q3-2018-vehicle-safety-report I posted the article to show how Tesla's way of measuring safety/accuracy is flawed. The article does a very good job demonstrating that. I agree with the article that we should come up with a procedure/policy driven approach to validating the safety of autonomous vehicles, because there would be no easy way to validate the safety of autonomous vehicles given the volume of human miles driven. MobilEye's RSS is aiming to do that.
- londons_explore 8y agoI bet parking lot incidents are underreported. A minor bump of someone else's car is far less likely to get reported if they aren't around to see who did it.
- Agathos 8y agoHopefully far, far below 1%. If I was hitting someone once every hundred miles, the front of my car would be pretty messed up.
- iamcreasy 8y ago>For those driving without Autopilot, we registered one accident or crash-like event for every 1.92 million miles driven. By comparison, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) most recent data shows that in the United States, there is an automobile crash every 492,000 miles. Source: https://www.tesla.com/blog/q3-2018-vehicle-safety-report https://www.tesla.com/blog/q3-2018-vehicle-safety-report
- computerex 8y agoRead this carefully: http://www.driverless-future.com/?page_id=983 http://www.driverless-future.com/?page_id=983 Any naive statistical argument comparing human performance to autonomous cars will fall flat on its face due to the small sample size of autonomous driven miles in relation to human driven miles.