With all due respect on this formula, it is only one instance of many possibities. There are numerous assumption being made. The range of outcome can easily be

With all due respect on this formula, it is only one instance of many possibities. There are numerous assumption being made. The range of outcome can easily be 10x different (with the mode being 0 obviously). Could it gives a more reprentative picture if we can do a survey on successful exit? Something like glassdoor.com? Also i've heard really good story happened to the talents in talent acquisition situations. I wonder if the number can turn out better in those cases, especially for non-founder and non-exec.