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Regardless on your feelings about "socialism", you have to ask yourself: What will happen when automation comes for more and more jobs? If the means of product

by mfoy_ 8y ago

Regardless on your feelings about "socialism", you have to ask yourself: What will happen when automation comes for more and more jobs? If the means of production are all automated, what does that mean for our society? Do we rail against automation in order to retain traditional jobs? How would that be materially different from Keynes' idea of economic stimulus by making jobs to dig holes and them in again?

AnimalMuppet 8y ago
What happened when automation came for farmers' jobs? They went to work in factories. The result was that we had at least as much food as before, but we also had cars and refrigerators and washing machines. Don't think of jobs as employing people. Think instead of society spending people on jobs. When we didn't have to spend a third of our people on growing food, we were able to spend them on manufacturing, and society was better off. If we don't have to spend as many on manufacturing, we're able to spend more of them on computer programming, and society is better off. If we can automate less-valuable work, we can spend our people on more valuable work. For any individual person without a job, this isn't necessarily a good deal. "You lost the thing you knew how to do, now you have to go learn how to do something harder." That's uncomfortable. We as a society need to do better at helping them learn the next thing. But the concern seems to be that we're going to run out of "next things". What if there's no work to be done? I don't think we're close to getting there. It's like the farmer wondering what will happen when the factories have produced a car for everyone, and so there's no need for factory workers any more - not knowing that factories are going to produce more than cars, and that factory work isn't the final stage of the economy.
- mfoy_ 8y ago
  I agree we're not that close to complete automation. But one day we will be. What then? Society needs to have some sort of plan in place for people when there are too few, too difficult jobs left.
  - AnimalMuppet 8y ago
    Completing automation of what? Farming? We're close. Factories? We're getting there. Completing automation of writing software? I mean, we're not writing machine code any more, but we really haven't even started. It's not clear that we're close to being able to start. Completing automation of scientific discovery? Completing automation of new product ideas? Security? Writing novels? I mean, I'd hate to say that none of those things could be automated. And yet I can't believe that everything will be.
    - mfoy_ 8y ago
      Assuming AGI takes off, why not?
      - AnimalMuppet 8y ago
        That's quite an assumption, though. But even if it happens, then what? Any scheme you propose to handle it is at the mercy of the AGI. If it doesn't agree, your scheme doesn't happen.
        mfoy_ 8y ago
        The Corporation Wars trilogy has some interesting ideas about what this could look like.
FakeComments 8y ago
If you want to know what happens to monkeys when AIs don’t need them to think, look at horses when we didn’t need them to labor.

by mfoy_ 8y ago

AnimalMuppet 8y ago

What happened when automation came for farmers' jobs? They went to work in factories. The result was that we had at least as much food as before, but we also had cars and refrigerators and washing machines. Don't think of jobs as employing people. Think instead of society spending people on jobs. When we didn't have to spend a third of our people on growing food, we were able to spend them on manufacturing, and society was better off. If we don't have to spend as many on manufacturing, we're able to spend more of them on computer programming, and society is better off. If we can automate less-valuable work, we can spend our people on more valuable work. For any individual person without a job, this isn't necessarily a good deal. "You lost the thing you knew how to do, now you have to go learn how to do something harder." That's uncomfortable. We as a society need to do better at helping them learn the next thing. But the concern seems to be that we're going to run out of "next things". What if there's no work to be done? I don't think we're close to getting there. It's like the farmer wondering what will happen when the factories have produced a car for everyone, and so there's no need for factory workers any more - not knowing that factories are going to produce more than cars, and that factory work isn't the final stage of the economy.

mfoy_ 8y ago
I agree we're not that close to complete automation. But one day we will be. What then? Society needs to have some sort of plan in place for people when there are too few, too difficult jobs left.
- AnimalMuppet 8y ago
  Completing automation of what? Farming? We're close. Factories? We're getting there. Completing automation of writing software? I mean, we're not writing machine code any more, but we really haven't even started. It's not clear that we're close to being able to start. Completing automation of scientific discovery? Completing automation of new product ideas? Security? Writing novels? I mean, I'd hate to say that none of those things could be automated. And yet I can't believe that everything will be.
  - mfoy_ 8y ago
    Assuming AGI takes off, why not?
    - AnimalMuppet 8y ago
      That's quite an assumption, though. But even if it happens, then what? Any scheme you propose to handle it is at the mercy of the AGI. If it doesn't agree, your scheme doesn't happen.
      - mfoy_ 8y ago
        The Corporation Wars trilogy has some interesting ideas about what this could look like.

FakeComments 8y ago

If you want to know what happens to monkeys when AIs don’t need them to think, look at horses when we didn’t need them to labor.