5 ms·

How long before eBook readers are entirely free, supported by subscriptions and/or sales of media? It seems like they are headed in the direction cell phones ha

How long before eBook readers are entirely free, supported by subscriptions and/or sales of media? It seems like they are headed in the direction cell phones have already taken.

Alex3917 16y ago
It's interesting that some products make the most sense to subsidize when they are very expensive, and other products make the most sense to subsidize when they are almost free. It's not really clear to me that subscriptions & eReaders interact in such a way that they fall neatly into either category. For example, as eReaders approach free are you really going to want a separate crappy eReader for each subscription your have, or would you rather have a really nice eReader for all your subscriptions? And if it's the latter, which I think it clearly is, then does it really make sense to tie one subscription into the initial purchase? The only way it makes sense is if you make something that's like the iPad of eReaders, so that it is the expensive option in a sea of other cheaper options. So even though eReaders will be almost free in three years, it seems like it could be another 6 years before we have the technology to make a luxury version of an eInk product. So in short I guess I would expect some sort of subsidized version in the three years, but I don't see it being done really well for another 6.
- njharman 16y ago
  > which I think it clearly is, then does it really make sense to tie one subscription into the initial purchase? Unless you're Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, etc. and want to be THE platform and have all subscriptions go through you and onto your awesome device. Apple's iOS AppStore is very successful example of this.
  - Alex3917 16y ago
    People still have to buy it though. Apple isn't going to make crappy eReader so I don't see them getting into the game more seriously until the technology is better, and I don't see everyone carrying around a Kindle either. The Kindle has done enormously well so far, but the fact is that the average American buys only 1 book a year and 70% of them don't even read it[1], so I don't really see how it's going to go from a few million sales to a few hundred million sales. Sure Amazon sells an enormous number of books, but that's because almost all books are read by the same 2% of people or whatever. So let's say Amazon does make some move to ensure that it continues to control eBook sales, what exactly would that look like? Almost everyone who reads daily newspapers already owns a kindle or is on track to within the next couple years, and I don't think people who read magazines would replace them with a kindle. And the student market is just an enormous mess that I don't think Amazon is currently prepared to deal with. So what other captive population would they really be able to capture via a subscription subsidy? [1] Possibly apocryphal, but probably true enough: http://www.humorwriters.org/startlingstats.html http://www.humorwriters.org/startlingstats.html
pierrefar 16y ago
The thing about mobile/cell phones is that they are subsidized only when there is a guaranteed subscription, namely the contract. If eBook readers can figure out a similar guarateed subscription, then yes. Otherwise, I don't see how they can be 100% subsidized. Amazon may try to play a game of lifetime value of a Kindle owner and subsidize based on that. I'm hesitant to think that will work because if the price point drops to $0 to the consumer then Amazon will attract customers who will have lower lifetime value and thus end up costing Amazon the difference between their lifetime value and the cost of the Kindle.
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- acangiano 16y ago
  Amazon could introduce a subscription service. You get the Kindle for free, have a monthly fee of $29 or $39, and you can download up to 10 titles per month. 1 year minimum contract.
  - loire280 16y ago
    A subscription plan with heavy discounts would go a long way to making me feel better about the DRM on books. Most books are disposable to me: a tech book that is obsolete in a year, novels that are not worth rereading, a popular career or business book I read for context. $10/book is a little too much for something I'm only going to read once.
    - eru 16y ago
      Have you considered joining a library?
      - wwortiz 16y ago
        To further this many libraries offer a very weird but usable ebook system which gives you the best of both worlds
listic 16y ago
I'd rather prefer that we pay full price for the reader hardware, but be able to buy it anywhere in the world.
rbanffy 16y ago
As long as there is no lock-in, I would support it. If, however, we end up having a bunch of different readers each one locked into its own walled garden, I'm out.
- LaPingvino 16y ago
  We have Calibre, Calibre can convert all your ebooks for different e-readers.
  - camiller 16y ago
    Calibre can convert a Kindle DRM encumbered book to another format? News to me....and apparently the folks at Calebre since .azw isn't listed as one of the supported formats. http://calibre-ebook.com/user_manual/faq.html#what-formats-does-app-support-conversion-to-from http://calibre-ebook.com/user_manual/faq.html#what-formats-d...
    - stevenbedrick 16y ago
      Calibre can't do the conversion, but AZW files are (most of the time) just MOBI files that have been DRM'd, so if you can break the DRM, you can easily convert it to something else (ePub, etc.) using Calibre. Fortunately, the Kindle DRM has been broken for quite some time, so there are plenty of ways to do this.
      - jokermatt999 16y ago
        True, but if you're ideologically against DRM, it doesn't make sense to buy DRMed media even if you'll break it later. By giving them profit for DRMed media, you make it less likely that a non-DRM system will come about. (At least, that's my reason for not getting a Kindle)

How long before eBook readers are entirely free, supported by subscriptions and/or sales of media? It seems like they are headed in the direction cell phones have already taken.

Alex3917 16y ago

It's interesting that some products make the most sense to subsidize when they are very expensive, and other products make the most sense to subsidize when they are almost free. It's not really clear to me that subscriptions & eReaders interact in such a way that they fall neatly into either category. For example, as eReaders approach free are you really going to want a separate crappy eReader for each subscription your have, or would you rather have a really nice eReader for all your subscriptions? And if it's the latter, which I think it clearly is, then does it really make sense to tie one subscription into the initial purchase? The only way it makes sense is if you make something that's like the iPad of eReaders, so that it is the expensive option in a sea of other cheaper options. So even though eReaders will be almost free in three years, it seems like it could be another 6 years before we have the technology to make a luxury version of an eInk product. So in short I guess I would expect some sort of subsidized version in the three years, but I don't see it being done really well for another 6.

njharman 16y ago
> which I think it clearly is, then does it really make sense to tie one subscription into the initial purchase? Unless you're Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, etc. and want to be THE platform and have all subscriptions go through you and onto your awesome device. Apple's iOS AppStore is very successful example of this.
- Alex3917 16y ago
  People still have to buy it though. Apple isn't going to make crappy eReader so I don't see them getting into the game more seriously until the technology is better, and I don't see everyone carrying around a Kindle either. The Kindle has done enormously well so far, but the fact is that the average American buys only 1 book a year and 70% of them don't even read it[1], so I don't really see how it's going to go from a few million sales to a few hundred million sales. Sure Amazon sells an enormous number of books, but that's because almost all books are read by the same 2% of people or whatever. So let's say Amazon does make some move to ensure that it continues to control eBook sales, what exactly would that look like? Almost everyone who reads daily newspapers already owns a kindle or is on track to within the next couple years, and I don't think people who read magazines would replace them with a kindle. And the student market is just an enormous mess that I don't think Amazon is currently prepared to deal with. So what other captive population would they really be able to capture via a subscription subsidy? [1] Possibly apocryphal, but probably true enough: http://www.humorwriters.org/startlingstats.html http://www.humorwriters.org/startlingstats.html

pierrefar 16y ago

The thing about mobile/cell phones is that they are subsidized only when there is a guaranteed subscription, namely the contract. If eBook readers can figure out a similar guarateed subscription, then yes. Otherwise, I don't see how they can be 100% subsidized. Amazon may try to play a game of lifetime value of a Kindle owner and subsidize based on that. I'm hesitant to think that will work because if the price point drops to $0 to the consumer then Amazon will attract customers who will have lower lifetime value and thus end up costing Amazon the difference between their lifetime value and the cost of the Kindle.

deleted 16y ago
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acangiano 16y ago
Amazon could introduce a subscription service. You get the Kindle for free, have a monthly fee of $29 or $39, and you can download up to 10 titles per month. 1 year minimum contract.
- loire280 16y ago
  A subscription plan with heavy discounts would go a long way to making me feel better about the DRM on books. Most books are disposable to me: a tech book that is obsolete in a year, novels that are not worth rereading, a popular career or business book I read for context. $10/book is a little too much for something I'm only going to read once.
  - eru 16y ago
    Have you considered joining a library?
    - wwortiz 16y ago
      To further this many libraries offer a very weird but usable ebook system which gives you the best of both worlds

listic 16y ago

I'd rather prefer that we pay full price for the reader hardware, but be able to buy it anywhere in the world.

rbanffy 16y ago

As long as there is no lock-in, I would support it. If, however, we end up having a bunch of different readers each one locked into its own walled garden, I'm out.

LaPingvino 16y ago
We have Calibre, Calibre can convert all your ebooks for different e-readers.
- camiller 16y ago
  Calibre can convert a Kindle DRM encumbered book to another format? News to me....and apparently the folks at Calebre since .azw isn't listed as one of the supported formats. http://calibre-ebook.com/user_manual/faq.html#what-formats-does-app-support-conversion-to-from http://calibre-ebook.com/user_manual/faq.html#what-formats-d...
  - stevenbedrick 16y ago
    Calibre can't do the conversion, but AZW files are (most of the time) just MOBI files that have been DRM'd, so if you can break the DRM, you can easily convert it to something else (ePub, etc.) using Calibre. Fortunately, the Kindle DRM has been broken for quite some time, so there are plenty of ways to do this.
    - jokermatt999 16y ago
      True, but if you're ideologically against DRM, it doesn't make sense to buy DRMed media even if you'll break it later. By giving them profit for DRMed media, you make it less likely that a non-DRM system will come about. (At least, that's my reason for not getting a Kindle)