5 ms·

The standard "correlation does not equal causation" rebuttal here might be "how do you know that ppl who are unemployed aren't just more likely to take more opi

The standard "correlation does not equal causation" rebuttal here might be "how do you know that ppl who are unemployed aren't just more likely to take more opioids?" The authors have attempted to address such a rebuttal thusly: "We also present evidence on reverse causality, finding that a short-term unemployment shock did not increase the share of people abusing prescription opioids."

microcolonel 8y ago
I'd be more inclined to think that the two trends share a cause, rather than cause one another.
- williamdclt 8y ago
  Well that's exactly what "correlation does not equal causation" means
ahmedalsudani 8y ago
That's a weak way to address it. You don't start using opioids right after losing your job. There's a period when you're trying to find another job and keep yourself productive. Looking at short-term shocks is obviously flawed.
- ngngngng 8y ago
  I was under the impression that MOST opioid addictions are caused by an opioid prescription. This would have nothing to do with your current job status.
  - sandworm101 8y ago
    >> caused by an opioid prescription. This would have nothing to do with your current job status. This is still the USA. Healthcare is attached to employment. I think it safe to say that those without jobs aren't visiting the doctor, getting prescriptions, at the same rate as those with employer-provided care.
  - mruts 8y ago
    I think people over estimate that possibility. I (and many people I know) got addicted because the same guy who deals one drug, deals other drugs. In my case I was buying cocaine to party and have sex and it turned out my drug dealer had heroin and offered me some one time for free. Because drugs are illegal, they are lumped to together, one guy who sells one might/probably sell the other. This is also why people call weed a "gateway" drug, because the dealer might have some MDMA or coke on them as well. If we just made all drugs illegal, I think we would eliminate this "gateway" effect. The can see evidence of this grouping effect in the mafia. They sell untaxed cigarettes, stolen goods, drugs, etc. What is the commonality between all of these things? The fact they are illegal of course!
    - reidjs 8y ago
      > If we just made all drugs illegal, I think we would eliminate this "gateway" effect. Did you mean to write the opposite of this?
      - mruts 8y ago
        Yes sorry: legal
  - bobcostas55 8y ago
    ~75% of addictions start with people using them _without_ a prescription. https://www.samhsa.gov/data/sites/default/files/NSDUH-DetTabs2014/NSDUH-DetTabs2014.htm#tab6-47b https://www.samhsa.gov/data/sites/default/files/NSDUH-DetTab...
    - peu4000 8y ago
      But almost all of that %75 comes from hand outs from someone the user knows and 6.48B indicates that person has a prescription for said pills.
    - ngngngng 8y ago
      I appreciate the data. I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist, but I could see the US government having an extremely strong motive to fudge this data.
- mruts 8y ago
  In my personal case, using opiates, specifically, heroin, was the only thing that let me keep my job (well, until I quit my job to get off of that shit). Working 12 hour day, 6-7 days a week in a brutal and miserable work environment (finance), the only thing I could do to survive was heroin. I would get like 4-5 hours a night and just felt like shit and really depressed everyday. Consequently, I started doing heroin for that extra "pep" (it's a common misnomer that heroin makes you fall asleep, it actually wakes you up). With heroin, I could work non-stop, sometimes for even 24 hours at a time while feeling sort of okay, provided I had a steady supply of heroin. I do however think that heroin/opiates use decreases the ability to rejoin the workforce. I fortunately was making a great salary so I could afford an expensive heroin habit ($200-$300 a day). But your average blue-collar worker probably isn't making as much money, and therefore, there state is much more unstable. Oscillating between getting high, going into withdrawals, running out of money, etc etc. When you are in this state, it is very hard to plan for the future (the only thing you are thinking about is how to not go into horrible pain in 3-4 hours) and, therefore, get a job.
  - zanmat0 8y ago
    Thanks for sharing, I didn't know it was used in those circles/circumstances.
    - exolymph 8y ago
      Eye-opening threads on the same topic, from a while back: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16465762 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16465762 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14776864 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14776864
  - bsder 8y ago
    I always presumed that cocaine was the "drug" (edit: originally used "opioid") of choice for finance. Heroin always seemed as for the "hardcore" or "musician" crowd.
    - opportune 8y ago
KorematsuFred 8y ago
Another issue here is that people who are out of employer provided insurance might be ending up consuming painkillers instead of actually getting proper health treatment.
causalarrow 8y ago
The US granted China permanent normal trade relations in 2000. Between 2000 and 2015, US imports from China more than quadrupled, increasing the decline of manufacturing jobs. According to Autor, Dorn & Hanson (2016): "Adjustment in local labor markets is remarkably slow, with wages and labor-force participation rates remaining depressed and unemployment rates remaining elevated for at least a full decade after the China trade shock commences"
- DigiMortal 8y ago
  They took er jobs and gave us fentanyl
peteradio 8y ago
I'm skeptical of that rebuttal. Are they selecting only those who had a short term unemployment for that group? Perhaps that group is exactly the group who wouldn't be in despair since they were easily able to find new work. Did they normalize that group demographics/industry type to that of those in the original study group? How do they know they aren't selecting all tech workers based on the quick rebound for instance.
ryanmarsh 8y ago
True, correlation does not equal causation. However a .44 correlation should not be ignored.
gabbygab 8y ago
That seems a bit deceptive by the researchers. I don't think anyone is saying "short term unemployment" leads to opioids. I think most people assume long term unemployment or lack of long term opportunities lead to hopelessness and drug use. Certainly there is a difference between I got laid off from Company A and it took be 3 months to land a job at Company B and the only major employer in my area shut down and I have no real prospects. I may be mistaken, but isn't "lack of participation in the labor force" equivalent to long term unemployment rather than short term unemployment? Isn't the question whether there is a causative relation between "long term unemployment" and "opioid use"? Short-term unemployment has no bearing on the issue.

microcolonel 8y ago

I'd be more inclined to think that the two trends share a cause, rather than cause one another.

williamdclt 8y ago
Well that's exactly what "correlation does not equal causation" means

ahmedalsudani 8y ago

That's a weak way to address it. You don't start using opioids right after losing your job. There's a period when you're trying to find another job and keep yourself productive. Looking at short-term shocks is obviously flawed.

ngngngng 8y ago
I was under the impression that MOST opioid addictions are caused by an opioid prescription. This would have nothing to do with your current job status.
- sandworm101 8y ago
  >> caused by an opioid prescription. This would have nothing to do with your current job status. This is still the USA. Healthcare is attached to employment. I think it safe to say that those without jobs aren't visiting the doctor, getting prescriptions, at the same rate as those with employer-provided care.
- mruts 8y ago
  I think people over estimate that possibility. I (and many people I know) got addicted because the same guy who deals one drug, deals other drugs. In my case I was buying cocaine to party and have sex and it turned out my drug dealer had heroin and offered me some one time for free. Because drugs are illegal, they are lumped to together, one guy who sells one might/probably sell the other. This is also why people call weed a "gateway" drug, because the dealer might have some MDMA or coke on them as well. If we just made all drugs illegal, I think we would eliminate this "gateway" effect. The can see evidence of this grouping effect in the mafia. They sell untaxed cigarettes, stolen goods, drugs, etc. What is the commonality between all of these things? The fact they are illegal of course!
  - reidjs 8y ago
    > If we just made all drugs illegal, I think we would eliminate this "gateway" effect. Did you mean to write the opposite of this?
    - mruts 8y ago
      Yes sorry: legal
- bobcostas55 8y ago
  ~75% of addictions start with people using them _without_ a prescription. https://www.samhsa.gov/data/sites/default/files/NSDUH-DetTabs2014/NSDUH-DetTabs2014.htm#tab6-47b https://www.samhsa.gov/data/sites/default/files/NSDUH-DetTab...
  - peu4000 8y ago
    But almost all of that %75 comes from hand outs from someone the user knows and 6.48B indicates that person has a prescription for said pills.
  - ngngngng 8y ago
    I appreciate the data. I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist, but I could see the US government having an extremely strong motive to fudge this data.
mruts 8y ago
In my personal case, using opiates, specifically, heroin, was the only thing that let me keep my job (well, until I quit my job to get off of that shit). Working 12 hour day, 6-7 days a week in a brutal and miserable work environment (finance), the only thing I could do to survive was heroin. I would get like 4-5 hours a night and just felt like shit and really depressed everyday. Consequently, I started doing heroin for that extra "pep" (it's a common misnomer that heroin makes you fall asleep, it actually wakes you up). With heroin, I could work non-stop, sometimes for even 24 hours at a time while feeling sort of okay, provided I had a steady supply of heroin. I do however think that heroin/opiates use decreases the ability to rejoin the workforce. I fortunately was making a great salary so I could afford an expensive heroin habit ($200-$300 a day). But your average blue-collar worker probably isn't making as much money, and therefore, there state is much more unstable. Oscillating between getting high, going into withdrawals, running out of money, etc etc. When you are in this state, it is very hard to plan for the future (the only thing you are thinking about is how to not go into horrible pain in 3-4 hours) and, therefore, get a job.
- zanmat0 8y ago
  Thanks for sharing, I didn't know it was used in those circles/circumstances.
  - exolymph 8y ago
    Eye-opening threads on the same topic, from a while back: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16465762 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16465762 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14776864 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14776864
- bsder 8y ago
  I always presumed that cocaine was the "drug" (edit: originally used "opioid") of choice for finance. Heroin always seemed as for the "hardcore" or "musician" crowd.
  - opportune 8y ago

KorematsuFred 8y ago

Another issue here is that people who are out of employer provided insurance might be ending up consuming painkillers instead of actually getting proper health treatment.

causalarrow 8y ago

The US granted China permanent normal trade relations in 2000. Between 2000 and 2015, US imports from China more than quadrupled, increasing the decline of manufacturing jobs. According to Autor, Dorn & Hanson (2016): "Adjustment in local labor markets is remarkably slow, with wages and labor-force participation rates remaining depressed and unemployment rates remaining elevated for at least a full decade after the China trade shock commences"

DigiMortal 8y ago
They took er jobs and gave us fentanyl

peteradio 8y ago

I'm skeptical of that rebuttal. Are they selecting only those who had a short term unemployment for that group? Perhaps that group is exactly the group who wouldn't be in despair since they were easily able to find new work. Did they normalize that group demographics/industry type to that of those in the original study group? How do they know they aren't selecting all tech workers based on the quick rebound for instance.

ryanmarsh 8y ago

True, correlation does not equal causation. However a .44 correlation should not be ignored.

gabbygab 8y ago

That seems a bit deceptive by the researchers. I don't think anyone is saying "short term unemployment" leads to opioids. I think most people assume long term unemployment or lack of long term opportunities lead to hopelessness and drug use. Certainly there is a difference between I got laid off from Company A and it took be 3 months to land a job at Company B and the only major employer in my area shut down and I have no real prospects. I may be mistaken, but isn't "lack of participation in the labor force" equivalent to long term unemployment rather than short term unemployment? Isn't the question whether there is a causative relation between "long term unemployment" and "opioid use"? Short-term unemployment has no bearing on the issue.