4 ms·

I hope not; in addition to negotiating an exit deal, there's also a stack of legislative changes that need to be made before exit (deal or otherwise) which are

by pmyteh 8y ago

I hope not; in addition to negotiating an exit deal, there's also a stack of legislative changes that need to be made before exit (deal or otherwise) which are stacked up and waiting. It's nearly impossible to see how that can be done even partially adequately at this point, so any exit would very likely be (1) with no deal (May's won't fly and there's no chance of negotiating another one this month) and (2) totally ill-prepared. My guess is an overwhelming (but utterly non-binding) rejection of 'no deal' by Parliament tomorrow, followed by a large majority on Thursday asking for a short-term extension of Article 50 to try to sort something out, followed by the EU saying "a year or nothing", followed by public disagreements, followed by an agreement for an extension of between two months and a year. Nobody actually wants a chaotic exit except a few financiers, and we're doing enough damage to ourselves that I doubt the EU wants to enforce a punishment beating at a cost to their own member states' economies. As for the final outcome, I'd guess: * No deal (10%) * May's deal (10%) * New (softer) deal (40%) * Second referendum (40%), with any option possible after that from no Brexit at all to the public saying 'sod you all' and demanding a no deal exit. But anything's possible at this point; we're off the map and predictions on the process I was much more confident on have already been wrong.

mehrdadn 8y ago
Is a second referendum really that likely? I feel like the way they're treating it it's a 5% likelihood.
- nicoburns 8y ago
  What option do you think is more likely? Any leave option has the Irish border question to sort (unless we remain in the customs union I suppose), which is pretty intractable, and already causing low-level violence to start up again in Ireland from what I hear. And surely we won't choose to stay without a referendum.
  - mehrdadn 8y ago
    I don't keep up with British politics much so this is me just taking wild guesses from nowhere but I feel like either they'll delay the exit or they'll exit without a deal. If there is another referendum I just can't see it happening the March 29 deadline.
    - nicoburns 8y ago
      I think a postponement is pretty likely at this point.
      - KSteffensen 8y ago
        Postponement doesn't solve any problems. The Irish border issue will remain intractable. And not leaving after all won't happen either, British pride and dreams of Empire can't handle that humiliation. My money is on the no deal exit, even though that implies the hard border to Ireland.
        nicoburns 8y ago
        > Postponement doesn't solve any problems. It does solve one problem: that otherwise we crash out with no deal by default. > And not leaving after all won't happen either, British pride and dreams of Empire can't handle that humiliation. That's not the only force in Britain though. Plenty of people, especially young people, see themselves as European as much as British. And plenty of people are ashamed of the empire too. > My money is on the no deal exit, even though that implies the hard border to Ireland. It could happen, but I don't think anybody is keen to see a resurgence in Irish terrorism, which is not unlikely in a No Deal scenario. And this is even ignoring the significant downsides this would have for the British economy.
- tinus_hn 8y ago
  If there’s enough delay there will be new elections which would be similar to a referendum.
benj111 8y ago
I'd broadly agree with you. My crystal ball says a short interim delay to before the EU elections, because at the moment theres no plan to timetable for, with a longer delay for something else. I think if there were a 2nd referendum, it would be remain, if only because all the old people that voted leave have died off. I don't think it would be by a satisfying large margin though. That's if we get a referendum though. The Overton window has shifted so for over, MPs might just unite on a soft Brexit.
benmmurphy 8y ago
The legislative change issue is an unusual example of vendor lock in. I wonder how much of EU law needs to be done through regulation instead of directives. When it is done through directives it forces governments to pass the legislation so the cost of implementing legislation so the laws don't blow up if you separate from the EU is lower. I guess directives over regulation might not even be popular for governments because they probably don't want to spend time rubber stamping EU legislation. I also wonder how the EU's legislative arrangements compare to other post-war vassal states. Did Germany and Japan have a legislative mess they needed to clean up when the Allied occupation ended?

by pmyteh 8y ago

mehrdadn 8y ago

Is a second referendum really that likely? I feel like the way they're treating it it's a 5% likelihood.

nicoburns 8y ago
What option do you think is more likely? Any leave option has the Irish border question to sort (unless we remain in the customs union I suppose), which is pretty intractable, and already causing low-level violence to start up again in Ireland from what I hear. And surely we won't choose to stay without a referendum.
- mehrdadn 8y ago
  I don't keep up with British politics much so this is me just taking wild guesses from nowhere but I feel like either they'll delay the exit or they'll exit without a deal. If there is another referendum I just can't see it happening the March 29 deadline.
  - nicoburns 8y ago
    I think a postponement is pretty likely at this point.
    - KSteffensen 8y ago
      Postponement doesn't solve any problems. The Irish border issue will remain intractable. And not leaving after all won't happen either, British pride and dreams of Empire can't handle that humiliation. My money is on the no deal exit, even though that implies the hard border to Ireland.
      - nicoburns 8y ago
        > Postponement doesn't solve any problems. It does solve one problem: that otherwise we crash out with no deal by default. > And not leaving after all won't happen either, British pride and dreams of Empire can't handle that humiliation. That's not the only force in Britain though. Plenty of people, especially young people, see themselves as European as much as British. And plenty of people are ashamed of the empire too. > My money is on the no deal exit, even though that implies the hard border to Ireland. It could happen, but I don't think anybody is keen to see a resurgence in Irish terrorism, which is not unlikely in a No Deal scenario. And this is even ignoring the significant downsides this would have for the British economy.
tinus_hn 8y ago
If there’s enough delay there will be new elections which would be similar to a referendum.

benj111 8y ago

I'd broadly agree with you. My crystal ball says a short interim delay to before the EU elections, because at the moment theres no plan to timetable for, with a longer delay for something else. I think if there were a 2nd referendum, it would be remain, if only because all the old people that voted leave have died off. I don't think it would be by a satisfying large margin though. That's if we get a referendum though. The Overton window has shifted so for over, MPs might just unite on a soft Brexit.

benmmurphy 8y ago

The legislative change issue is an unusual example of vendor lock in. I wonder how much of EU law needs to be done through regulation instead of directives. When it is done through directives it forces governments to pass the legislation so the cost of implementing legislation so the laws don't blow up if you separate from the EU is lower. I guess directives over regulation might not even be popular for governments because they probably don't want to spend time rubber stamping EU legislation. I also wonder how the EU's legislative arrangements compare to other post-war vassal states. Did Germany and Japan have a legislative mess they needed to clean up when the Allied occupation ended?