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Do you personally think that the UK will actually end up leaving the EU in 10 days? If yes, what are the chances of that happening?

nicoburns 8y ago
It's not impossible, but probably not. I'd give it maybe a 10% chance. There's a clear majority of MP's who don't want a No Deal scenario. Most likely there will be a postponement of some kind, but probably a short one. What happens at the end of that period is entirely unclear at this point. Leaving without a deal is still a distinct possibility, but probably not the most likely one. I'd give about even odds to some kind of deal being wrangled, and there being another referendum. Of course, even another referendum doesn't necessarily resolve things. The vote is likely to be close again.
- nkkollaw 8y ago
  You mean there's only 10% chance than the UK will leave the EU? That's pretty low!
  - AnimalMuppet 8y ago
    No, there's only a 10% chance that the UK will leave in 10 days, with no deal. At least, that's how I read nicoburns' answer.
    - nicoburns 8y ago
      Yep, that's what I meant. Overall chances of leaving the EU I'd put at 50%. Which is really another way of saying I have no clue.
- mrec 8y ago
  > The vote is likely to be close again That depends very much what the question is. The vast majority of those pushing for a 2nd ref want it to be a choice between May's WA and Remain. In which case the majority of Leave voters boycott (because there'd be no Leave option as most people understand it) and Remain wins by a landslide. National support for the WA is down in the noise. Personally, I think that if you're going to do that you may as well just skip the referendum entirely, declare that the whole thing's cancelled and save everyone a lot of bother.
  - nicoburns 8y ago
    > Personally, I think that if you're going to do that you may as well just skip the referendum entirely, declare that the whole thing's cancelled and save everyone a lot of bother. I think it's significantly more democratic to have another vote. Most people thought remain would win the first one, but they didn't. If leave won again, we'd definitely definitely have to leave. > there'd be no Leave option as most people understand it I question that there is such a shared understanding of what leave means. Leavers seem pretty split between hard and soft options.
    - mrec 8y ago
      I think a recent poll showed only 12% thought the WA respected the referendum result. Another showed 44% - not a majority but a significant (and rapidly rising) plurality - supporting no-deal. Both were polling the general population, not just leavers. That obviously doesn't mean that all leavers agree, but enough of them do that a WA-vs-Remain re-ref would be a foregone conclusion.
    - andrenth 8y ago
      It’s much more democratic to respect the original vote, no?
      - nicoburns 8y ago
        How? If people have changed their minds due to how the Brexit negotiations have proceeded, then it is democratic to seek and respect that new opinion? If they haven't, then they can make that clear too. It would only be undemocratic if there was coercion to vote a certain way in the second referendum. But I don't see that happening.
        andrenth 8y ago
        But when does it end? What if people change their minds again?
    - repolfx 8y ago
- jfindley 8y ago
  There's a lot of politicians who have been very happy criticising every "what do we do now" proposal, without having any constructive alternatives. Even a general election wouldn't really help, as it would force MPs to say what they DO actually want, which the majority of them have been avoiding as far as possible. On a topic this controversial, MPs love being allowed to vote "no" to everything, but hate being forced to commit to anything constructive - anything they say will be unpopular with some of their constituency, and likely lose them votes. It will be very interesting to see what happens as their ability to criticise without offering alternatives gets closer to being taken away. This is particularly true of Brexit, as significant numbers of both major parties voted for and against it, so neither party can avoid angering lots of people who would normally vote for them no matter what they do.
air7 8y ago
It's just insane that that is a valid question.
pmyteh 8y ago
I hope not; in addition to negotiating an exit deal, there's also a stack of legislative changes that need to be made before exit (deal or otherwise) which are stacked up and waiting. It's nearly impossible to see how that can be done even partially adequately at this point, so any exit would very likely be (1) with no deal (May's won't fly and there's no chance of negotiating another one this month) and (2) totally ill-prepared. My guess is an overwhelming (but utterly non-binding) rejection of 'no deal' by Parliament tomorrow, followed by a large majority on Thursday asking for a short-term extension of Article 50 to try to sort something out, followed by the EU saying "a year or nothing", followed by public disagreements, followed by an agreement for an extension of between two months and a year. Nobody actually wants a chaotic exit except a few financiers, and we're doing enough damage to ourselves that I doubt the EU wants to enforce a punishment beating at a cost to their own member states' economies. As for the final outcome, I'd guess: * No deal (10%) * May's deal (10%) * New (softer) deal (40%) * Second referendum (40%), with any option possible after that from no Brexit at all to the public saying 'sod you all' and demanding a no deal exit. But anything's possible at this point; we're off the map and predictions on the process I was much more confident on have already been wrong.
- mehrdadn 8y ago
  Is a second referendum really that likely? I feel like the way they're treating it it's a 5% likelihood.
  - nicoburns 8y ago
    What option do you think is more likely? Any leave option has the Irish border question to sort (unless we remain in the customs union I suppose), which is pretty intractable, and already causing low-level violence to start up again in Ireland from what I hear. And surely we won't choose to stay without a referendum.
    - mehrdadn 8y ago
      I don't keep up with British politics much so this is me just taking wild guesses from nowhere but I feel like either they'll delay the exit or they'll exit without a deal. If there is another referendum I just can't see it happening the March 29 deadline.

nicoburns 8y ago

It's not impossible, but probably not. I'd give it maybe a 10% chance. There's a clear majority of MP's who don't want a No Deal scenario. Most likely there will be a postponement of some kind, but probably a short one. What happens at the end of that period is entirely unclear at this point. Leaving without a deal is still a distinct possibility, but probably not the most likely one. I'd give about even odds to some kind of deal being wrangled, and there being another referendum. Of course, even another referendum doesn't necessarily resolve things. The vote is likely to be close again.

nkkollaw 8y ago
You mean there's only 10% chance than the UK will leave the EU? That's pretty low!
- AnimalMuppet 8y ago
  No, there's only a 10% chance that the UK will leave in 10 days, with no deal. At least, that's how I read nicoburns' answer.
  - nicoburns 8y ago
    Yep, that's what I meant. Overall chances of leaving the EU I'd put at 50%. Which is really another way of saying I have no clue.
mrec 8y ago
> The vote is likely to be close again That depends very much what the question is. The vast majority of those pushing for a 2nd ref want it to be a choice between May's WA and Remain. In which case the majority of Leave voters boycott (because there'd be no Leave option as most people understand it) and Remain wins by a landslide. National support for the WA is down in the noise. Personally, I think that if you're going to do that you may as well just skip the referendum entirely, declare that the whole thing's cancelled and save everyone a lot of bother.
- nicoburns 8y ago
  > Personally, I think that if you're going to do that you may as well just skip the referendum entirely, declare that the whole thing's cancelled and save everyone a lot of bother. I think it's significantly more democratic to have another vote. Most people thought remain would win the first one, but they didn't. If leave won again, we'd definitely definitely have to leave. > there'd be no Leave option as most people understand it I question that there is such a shared understanding of what leave means. Leavers seem pretty split between hard and soft options.
  - mrec 8y ago
    I think a recent poll showed only 12% thought the WA respected the referendum result. Another showed 44% - not a majority but a significant (and rapidly rising) plurality - supporting no-deal. Both were polling the general population, not just leavers. That obviously doesn't mean that all leavers agree, but enough of them do that a WA-vs-Remain re-ref would be a foregone conclusion.
  - andrenth 8y ago
    It’s much more democratic to respect the original vote, no?
    - nicoburns 8y ago
      How? If people have changed their minds due to how the Brexit negotiations have proceeded, then it is democratic to seek and respect that new opinion? If they haven't, then they can make that clear too. It would only be undemocratic if there was coercion to vote a certain way in the second referendum. But I don't see that happening.
      - andrenth 8y ago
        But when does it end? What if people change their minds again?
  - repolfx 8y ago
jfindley 8y ago
There's a lot of politicians who have been very happy criticising every "what do we do now" proposal, without having any constructive alternatives. Even a general election wouldn't really help, as it would force MPs to say what they DO actually want, which the majority of them have been avoiding as far as possible. On a topic this controversial, MPs love being allowed to vote "no" to everything, but hate being forced to commit to anything constructive - anything they say will be unpopular with some of their constituency, and likely lose them votes. It will be very interesting to see what happens as their ability to criticise without offering alternatives gets closer to being taken away. This is particularly true of Brexit, as significant numbers of both major parties voted for and against it, so neither party can avoid angering lots of people who would normally vote for them no matter what they do.

air7 8y ago

It's just insane that that is a valid question.

pmyteh 8y ago

I hope not; in addition to negotiating an exit deal, there's also a stack of legislative changes that need to be made before exit (deal or otherwise) which are stacked up and waiting. It's nearly impossible to see how that can be done even partially adequately at this point, so any exit would very likely be (1) with no deal (May's won't fly and there's no chance of negotiating another one this month) and (2) totally ill-prepared. My guess is an overwhelming (but utterly non-binding) rejection of 'no deal' by Parliament tomorrow, followed by a large majority on Thursday asking for a short-term extension of Article 50 to try to sort something out, followed by the EU saying "a year or nothing", followed by public disagreements, followed by an agreement for an extension of between two months and a year. Nobody actually wants a chaotic exit except a few financiers, and we're doing enough damage to ourselves that I doubt the EU wants to enforce a punishment beating at a cost to their own member states' economies. As for the final outcome, I'd guess: * No deal (10%) * May's deal (10%) * New (softer) deal (40%) * Second referendum (40%), with any option possible after that from no Brexit at all to the public saying 'sod you all' and demanding a no deal exit. But anything's possible at this point; we're off the map and predictions on the process I was much more confident on have already been wrong.

mehrdadn 8y ago
Is a second referendum really that likely? I feel like the way they're treating it it's a 5% likelihood.
- nicoburns 8y ago
  What option do you think is more likely? Any leave option has the Irish border question to sort (unless we remain in the customs union I suppose), which is pretty intractable, and already causing low-level violence to start up again in Ireland from what I hear. And surely we won't choose to stay without a referendum.
  - mehrdadn 8y ago
    I don't keep up with British politics much so this is me just taking wild guesses from nowhere but I feel like either they'll delay the exit or they'll exit without a deal. If there is another referendum I just can't see it happening the March 29 deadline.