Employees should consider their options to have an expected value of $0. (With a not insignificant variance...) There are so many ways things can fail to pan o

Employees should consider their options to have an expected value of $0. (With a not insignificant variance...) There are so many ways things can fail to pan out or you can get screwed, and employees simply can't protect themselves in the way an investor or founder can. If significant participation in an exit is important to you, the only logical option is to be a founder yourself. Trying to get a payoff as an employee is little better than gambling. My rule of thumb is that if the options influence your behavior at all, you're over-valuing them.