4 ms·
21,000 is actually higher than I thought. Very roughly, the average kid has a 0.5% chance of being abducted by a stranger by the time they are 18. That's much
by bokonist 16y ago
21,000 is actually higher than I thought. Very roughly, the average kid has a 0.5% chance of being abducted by a stranger by the time they are 18. That's much higher than I would expect, I personally don't know of anyone who was ever abducted by a stranger as a kid. But maybe it's happened more than I know, it's not something people will generally talk about.
- bmelton 16y agoI got .00007%, actually. But I'm notoriously dumb with simple math.
- bokonist 16y ago21,000 stranger abductions / 74 million kids under 18 = .000289 = 0.03% chance of being abducted per year (1-.03%) = 99.97% chance of not being abducted in a given year .9997^14 = 99.6% chance of not being abducted in 14 straight years (from age 4 through 17, assuming kids under 4 are virtually never left alone). Thus there is a 0.4% chance of being abducted by a stranger by age 18. Of those <1% suffer injury or death. But about half suffer some form of sexual abuse. The other half are unharmed. So the chance of having a traumatic abduction by the time a child reaches 18 is ~0.2% or 1 out of 500.
- bmelton 16y agoAh, you win. Mine was 21,000 out of 300,000,000. Thanks for the prompt correction.