I'm skeptical of any model that throws up its hands and says "this is so for a number of reasons I guess". Multifactor trends are unlikely [1], bad at explanati

I'm skeptical of any model that throws up its hands and says "this is so for a number of reasons I guess". Multifactor trends are unlikely [1], bad at explanation and prediction, and easy to fit to anything. It's better to admit you don't know than say it's a combination of N things. Remember, most things are hard to explain until you know the truth. That doesn't mean the truth is super complicated. [1] https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/02/14/how-likely-are-multifactorial-trends/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/02/14/how-likely-are-multifa...